Region 7 Deer Forecast
Deer hunting prospects for the 2009 deer seasons should be good throughout much of the region. Deer populations that hit lows in 2004 have generally rebounded and management intent over the last few years has shifted from allowing growth to stabilizing or reducing populations. While overall Deer Management Permit (DMP) numbers will be down slightly (7%) there will still be plenty of antlerless opportunity to go along with what should be good prospects for bucks. The winter of 2008-09 started out as if it might be a tough one on deer, but with a thaw in February things eased up and likely had minimal impact in most of the region.
Unit Summary for the 2009 Season
Following is a brief description of the Wildlife Management Units (WMUs) for which Region 7 oversees deer management, including a unit by unit review of deer populations, management efforts and harvest expectations. Noted with each summary is the unit's Buck Take Objective (BTO) which is established based on the recommendation of a Citizen Task Force (CTF). The BTO is the number of antlered bucks expected to be harvested, per square mile, when the WMU's deer population is at the level recommended by a CTF. The annual buck harvest and other indexes are used to gauge a WMU's deer population size and its relationship to the desired population level. This relationship is key to determining management direction. Note: some portions of Regions 7's counties fall into WMUs managed by an adjacent region (e.g., eastern Oswego County lies in WMU6K). See other regional forecasts for a report on these lands.
WMU Revisions - Some revisions to WMUs will be in place for the 2009 season. In region 7 WMUs 7M and 7S are affected and a new WMU 7P was created. The changes to 7M were significant and those to 7S relatively small. Hunters should carefully check maps to ensure they know the unit designation for the lands they hunt. Region 7's revision were made largely to address bear management program interests, but were also influenced by and impact other programs. If you hunt in these areas please review the WMU boundary descriptions.
WMU 7A
Area = 545 square miles
BTO = 2.1 bucks harvested per square mile
2008 Buck Take = 2.2 bucks harvested per square mile
2008 Total Deer Take = 4.3 deer harvested per square mile
WMU 7A is comprised mainly of lands in western Oswego County and also includes small portions of northern Cayuga and northwestern Onondaga Counties. The unit has very little public land. WMU 7A lies in the Great Lakes Plain physiographic zone and presents a relatively flat landscape. Soils in much of the unit are poorly suited for farming with only about 35% of the land being farmed and about 60% is forested. A CTF was held for the unit this past winter and recommended the unit's deer population be maintained at the 2008 level. A review of pertinent data resulted in the BTO for the unit being adjusted upward from 1.8 to 2.1 and management intent for 2009 is to stabilize the deer population. The 2008 buck take jumped to 2.2 and the bowhunter sighting log data also rose indicating the unit's population rose from 2007 to 2008. Recent doe takes should halt this growth and the winter of 2008-09 will likely further stifle growth, if not contribute to a decline. DMPs will again be available in 2009, but numbers are reduced slightly in light of the new higher BTO and to offset the prospects of winter impacts. A little less than half of resident applicants without preference points should receive a first permit. No second permits will be available. Expect slight decline in the 2009 buck take.
WMU 7F
Area = 687 square miles
BTO = 1.9 bucks harvested per square mile
2008 Buck Take = 2.1 bucks harvested per square mile
2008 Total Deer Take = 5.2 deer harvested per square mile
WMU 7F is centered in northern Onondaga County and also includes portions of Cayuga and northern Madison County and has very little public land. WMU 7F lies in the Great Lakes Plain physiographic zone and presents a relatively flat landscape. About 35% of the land is farmed and about 40% is wooded. The unit also has a considerable amount of developed area where management capability is compromised due to limited hunting access. Similar to the pattern in many units, the unit's deer population hit a recent low in 2004 and has rebounded since then. Both the buck take and bowhunter sighting log index figure rose from 2007 to 2008, and the buck take is well above the unit's BTO. High doe takes the last two years coupled with a relatively tough winter should result in this deer population declining. DMP numbers will remain high in 2009 in an effort to reduce this deer population to the objective. All applicants will receive a first permit and more than two thirds a second permit. Expect to little change in the 2009 buck take.
WMU 7H
Area = 357 square miles
BTO = 1.9 bucks harvested per square mile
2008 Buck Take = 3.3 bucks harvested per square mile
2008 Total Deer Take = 8.6 deer harvested per square mile
This unit consists of lands in southern Cayuga County and northern Tompkins County and has very little public land. The unit lies mainly in the Finger Lakes Highlands physiographic subzone, with some of the Great Lakes Plain zone on the north end. Soils in much of the unit are well suited to agriculture and almost 50% of the unit is cropland, while only about 30% is forested. Both the buck take and bowhunter sighting log index suggest the unit's deer population declined from 2007 to 2008. The buck take, however, remains well above the unit's objective. DMP numbers will remain high in the unit in an effort to reduce deer numbers. All applicants will receive a first permit, as will most second permit applicants. Expect the buck take to decline in 2009.
WMU 7J
Area = 839 square miles
BTO = 2.2 bucks harvested per square mile
2008 Buck Take = 2.8 bucks harvested per square mile
2008 Total Deer Take = 6.6 deer harvested per square mile
WMU 7J is centered in southern Onondaga County and also includes portions of Cayuga, Cortland and Madison Counties and has limited public lands. The unit lies in the Appalachian Plateau physiographic zone and presents a rolling landscape on which many of the flatter areas, valleys and hilltops are farmed and the hillsides are wooded. About 45% of the unit is farm land and about 40% is wooded. The unit's deer population has rebounded since hitting a low in 2004 and is now well above the unit's objective. Harvest data and bowhunter sighting log results for the unit suggests this deer population, despite relatively high doe harvests, continues to grow. Recent doe harvests coupled with a relatively hard winter may set the stage for this population to decline. In 2009 DMPs will remain high in a continued effort to reduce the unit's deer population to the objective level. All applicants will receive a first permit, and more than half will receive a second permit. Expect slight decline in the 2009 buck take.
WMU 7M
Area = 1,242 square miles
BTO = 2.5 bucks harvested per square mile
2008 Buck Take = 3.0 bucks harvested per square mile (calculated for the revised unit areas)
2008 Total Deer Take = 6.4 deer harvested per square mile (calculated for the revised unit areas)
This unit is revised for 2009 with some lands in the southeastern portion of the former unit being split off as part of new unit, WMU 7P (see below). The unit encompasses large portions of Chenango, Cortland and Madison Counties and small areas of Broome, Onondaga and Oneida Counties. This WMU includes an abundance of public land. WMU 7M lies in the Appalachian Plateau physiographic ecozone and presents a rolling and predominately wooded landscape. Farming which once occurred in much of the unit is now limited to the more fertile sites. About 30% of the area is in farms and about 65% is wooded. The unit's buck take had risen each of the last four years, reaching 3.0 bucks per square mile in 2008, above the objective. Yet, the bowhunter sighting log, suggests the unit's population was relatively stable the last 2-3 years. Recent doe takes coupled with a relatively hard winter are likely to prompt a decline in this population. DMP numbers will remain similar to those available in 2008, and just over one half of applicants will receive first permits and no second permits are available. Expect to see a decline in the 2009 buck take.
WMU 7P
Area = 485 square miles
BTO = new unit; a CTF is planned for 2010
2008 Buck Take = 3.0 bucks harvested per square mile (calculated for the new unit areas)
2008 Total Deer Take = 6.0 deer harvested per square mile (calculated for the new unit areas)
New WMU 7P is comprised mainly of lands formerly in 7M and the BTO for 7M will be used until a CTF, planned for early 2010, provides a new objective for the unit. The unit is comprised predominately of lands in eastern and southern Chenango County with a small area of Broome County also included. This WMU is predominately private land, though it includes several state forest parcels. WMU 7P lies in the Appalachian Plateau physiographic ecozone and presents a rolling and predominately wooded landscape. Farming which once occurred in much of the unit is now limited to the more fertile sites. About 30% of the area is in farms and about 60% is wooded. Harvest data assembled for the unit indicate the area's deer population has been relatively stable the last 2-3 years with the 2008 buck take climbing a bit. The bowhunter sighting log data assembled for the unit also indicate the unit's deer population is relatively stable. Deer management objective for 2009 will be to try to keep the population stable in advance of a 2010 CTF. DMPs will be somewhat limited with about half of resident applicants receiving a first permit. No second permits will be available. Expect a slight decline in the buck take.
WMU 7R
Area = 739 square miles
BTO = 2.7 bucks harvested per square mile
2008 Buck Take = 3.3 bucks harvested per square mile
2008 Total Deer Take = 8.7 deer harvested per square mile
WMU 7R encompasses much of southern Tompkins County and northern Tioga County. It also includes portions of Broome, Chemung, Cortland, and Schuyler Counties and contains several parcels of public land. WMU 7R lies in the Appalachian Plateau physiographic ecozone and presents a rolling landscape. Farming which once occurred in much of the unit now occurs on only about 25% of the area and about 65% is wooded. A Citizen Task Force was held for this unit this past winter. The group was unable to reach consensus on a BTO recommendation, debating over retaining the 2004 established objective or raising it slightly. They did recommend DEC continue doe harvest opportunities similar to those available in recent years. The 2008 buck take held stable at 3.3 bucks per square mile, and continued a span of over a decade with the deer population higher than the objective, despite efforts to reduce the unit's deer numbers. Recent bowhunter sighting log data also suggest the unit's deer population is relatively stable. Deer management permit numbers for 2009 will remain high in a continued effort to control this population. All applicants will receive a first permit and more than two thirds will receive a second permit. Expect little change in the buck take in 2009.
WMU 7S
Area = 663 square miles
BTO = 3.0 bucks harvested per square mile
2008 Buck Take = 2.9 bucks harvested per square mile (calculated for the revised unit areas)
2008 Total Deer Take = 6.7 deer harvested per square mile (calculated for the revised unit areas)
WMU 7S is slightly revised for 2009 with a small portion of the former unit being shifted into new WMU 7P (see above). The unit encompasses much of southern Broome and Tioga Counties and a very small section of Chemung County. The unit contains very little public land. WMU 7S lies in the Appalachian Plateau physiographic ecozone and presents a rolling landscape. Farming which once occurred in much of the unit now occurs on only about 25% of the area and a little over 60% is wooded. The buck take hit a low in this unit in 2005, and after slight increases in 2006 and 2007, buck take fell again in 2008 to just below the objective level. The buck take and the bowhunter sighting log index both indicate the population in the unit declined between 2007 and 2008. For 2009 the management objective will be to allow some growth and DMP availability will be reduced. Most applicants will receive a first permit and no second permits will be available. Expect slight decline in the 2009 buck take.
David Riehlman
Region 7 Deer Biologist
