Region 8 Deer Forecast
Hunters took a total of 46,356 deer in the eleven counties of Region 8 in 2006, up about 4% over 2005. This is notable, since it marks the first increase in total take seen in the region since 2002. Antlerless harvest rose last year as well, up about 3%, even though only 1% more Deer Management Permits (DMPs) were available. The best news for hunters however, is that the buck take in Region 8 increased over 5% in 2006, indicating a deer population that is clearly rising, if only at a moderate pace.
While Region 8 hunters may see more deer come fall, the current population rebound is proving to be of the slow and steady variety, so changes will likely not be dramatic. Reduced habitat quality in many areas due to years of prior deer overpopulation is likely a contributing factor to the sluggish rebound.
Yearling antler beam diameter (one measure of deer physical condition) was significantly greater in many regional units last fall, indicating deer were in good shape heading into last winter. In addition, an analysis of over 120 road-killed deer in southern Region 8 last winter showed only four that likely would have starved had they not been hit by cars, indicating minimal winter mortality, even in our poorest deer range.
Deer populations in the northern half of the region are generally at or above objective levels, and in most cases, continue to rise. In contrast, deer numbers in our Southern Tier units are still below objectives but are making steady progress upwards, and in several cases are nearing where they should be.
Last year we increased DMP numbers moderately in response to a regional deer herd that was once again expanding. This fall hunters can expect to see this strategy continue, as we up permit numbers more to keep pace with a deer herd that is now clearly and steadily rising. About 156,000 DMPs will be available for Region 8 hunters this fall, allowing applicants in most units to receive at least one permit.
Unit Summary for the 2007 Season
Included in the discussion of most Wildlife Management Units (WMUs) is a term called the Buck Take Objective (BTO). The BTO for a WMU is the desired number of antlered bucks expected to be harvested per square mile when the WMU's deer population is at the desired level as determined by the Citizen Task Force. The BTO is not the estimated take for the coming season but rather is the objective of our management efforts. The annual buck harvest is used as a gauge of population size and it's relationship to the desired population level.
WMU 8A
Area = 419 square miles
BTO = 1.5 bucks harvested per square mile
2006 Buck Take = 2.1 bucks harvested per square mile
2006 Total Deer Take = 5.7 deer harvested per square mile
WMU 8A is situated primarily in northern Orleans and Monroe Counties and contains very little public land. The 2006 buck take came down a little to 2.1 per square mile, but is still above the objective of 1.5, as it has been for over ten years. The deer herd in 8A should be about what it was last fall, and DMP availability will increase slightly this fall to try to bring the population down towards objective in this very productive unit. Chances of receiving first and second permits this fall will be high for resident and non-resident hunters alike.
WMU 8C
Area = 138 square miles
BTO = None
2006 Buck Take = 0.6 bucks harvested per square mile
2006 Total Deer Take = 1.9 deer harvested per square mile
WMU 8C is a small "archery only" unit surrounding the City of Rochester in Monroe County and has historically contained a high deer population. Deer harvest here is governed largely by land access, not number of permits available. So if desired, anyone applying should receive two permits. In continuation of a change implemented last year, no leftover (First-Come, First-Serve) permits will be available this November. Chances of success are high in 8C, but because hunting access is limited, applicants are advised to secure a hunting location before applying. Note also that deer hunters in this unit must have passed a Bowhunter Education course, and the only legal hunting implement is bow and arrow. To assist in reducing the growth of this deer population, Bonus Permits for deer of either sex will be available again for hunters who fill their WMU 8C DMPs. Those hunters taking antlerless deer on Bonus Permits may continue to receive additional Bonus Permits as long as they continue to be used to harvest antlerless deer.
WMU 8F
Area = 733 square miles
BTO = 1.9 bucks harvested per square mile
2006 Buck Take = 2.4 bucks harvested per square mile
2006 Total Deer Take = 6.6 deer harvested per square mile
WMU 8F occupies most of Wayne and a portion of Monroe County and contains a good deal of agriculture, including a significant amount of orchard acreage. Ample public land exists in the eastern part of this unit. The 2006 buck harvest of 2.4 bucks per square mile is unchanged from 2006, and the number of deer available to hunters in this unit should be about the same come this fall. This is still higher than our objective, however, and management efforts will be directed at increasing female harvest to reduce this population. Consequently, more DMPs than last year will be available this fall. Chances of first permit selection will be high for both residents and non-residents, and high for residents on second permits. No second permits will be available for non-resident applicants.
WMU 8G
Area = 686 square miles
BTO = 2.3 bucks harvested per square mile
2006 Buck Take = 2.9 bucks harvested per square mile
2006 Total Deer Take = 8.6 deer harvested per square mile
WMU 8G comprises most of Genesee and the southern portion of Orleans County. It contains a large expanse of state and federal land in the western part of the unit. The buck harvest in 8G came in at 2.9 bucks per square mile in 2006, up marginally from 2.8 in '05, and still above the objective. Hopefully several consecutive years of high female harvest will start to kick in, but the number of applicants in this unit may become a limiting factor in achieving desired DMP harvest. Hunters can expect about the same level of deer sightings as last year. Chances of receiving first and second permits this fall will be high for both resident and non-resident applicants.
WMU 8H
Area = 574 square miles
BTO = 2.8 bucks harvested per square mile
2006 Buck Take = 3.5 bucks harvested per square mile
2006 Total Deer Take = 9.0 deer harvested per square mile
WMU 8H includes parts of Livingston, Monroe, and Ontario counties and has limited public land accessible for hunting. This is a large, very productive unit with an ideal mix of deer habitat. After three straight years of declining buck takes (while still all above objective), buck harvest is once again on the rise, coming in at 3.5 per square mile last fall. We expect deer numbers to remain fairly constant or even increase slightly in 2007, and DMPs will be substantially increased to try to lower deer levels towards the objective of 2.8 per square mile. Chances of receiving first and second permits this fall will be high for both resident and non-resident applicants.
WMU 8J
Area = 712 square miles
BTO = 2.1 bucks harvested per square mile
2006 Buck Take = 2.3 bucks harvested per square mile
2006 Total Deer Take = 6.2 deer harvested per square mile
WMU 8J includes portions of Seneca, Wayne, Ontario, and Yates counties with a moderate amount of public hunting land available. The buck take in this unit seems to have stabilized slightly above objective, currently standing at 2.3 bucks per square mile. Relatively high doe harvests over the past few years should help send the buck take down just a little, and we should be even closer to objective after the coming season. DMPs will be scaled back very slightly in anticipation of this. Hunters should expect to see about the same number of deer this fall as they did last. Chances for DMPs will be high on first permits for both residents and non-residents, and medium on second permits for residents. No second permits will be available for non-residents.
WMU 8M
Area = 307 square miles
BTO = 3.9 bucks harvested per square mile
2006 Buck Take = 3.4 bucks harvested per square mile
2006 Total Deer Take = 7.6 deer harvested per square mile
WMU 8M is situated primarily within southern Livingston County and holds plenty of public land. 8M's buck take turned substantially upwards last year, going from 2.9 to 3.4 bucks per square mile. Although it is currently still below the objective of 3.9, three years of reduced doe harvests should allow the population to rise to near objective after this fall. Because we anticipate a continuing recovery in this unit, DMP numbers must be increased to keep pace.
Chances for DMPs will be high on first permits for both residents and non-residents, and medium on second permits for residents. No second permits will be available for non-residents.
WMU 8N
Area = 314 square miles
BTO = None
2006 Buck Take = 5.0 bucks harvested per square mile
2006 Total Deer Take = 12.3 deer harvested per square mile
WMU 8N includes southern Ontario and portions of Livingston and Yates counties. Many diverse public hunting opportunities exist in this largely wooded and hilly Finger Lakes unit. No BTO has been established for 8N, but considering ecological and human impacts from deer, the deer populations of the late 1990s and early 2000s were too high in this unit. Management efforts succeeded in reducing the deer population from a high of 8.2 bucks harvested per square mile in 2000 to 4.8 per square mile in 2005. Buck harvest rose marginally in 2006 to 5.0 per square mile. With a ten-year history of the highest buck harvest density in the state, we are concerned that 8N's deer population will once again climb higher than the habitat can support. As a result, expect DMP availability to increase substantially in an effort to remove sufficient numbers of female deer to keep the herd under control. Hunters in 8N should expect to see deer numbers at least on a par with last year, or even a little greater. Chances of first permit selection will be high for both residents and non-residents, and high for residents on second permits. No second permits will be available for non-resident applicants.
WMU 8P
Area = 356 square miles
BTO = 4.2 bucks harvested per square mile
2006 Buck Take = 3.4 bucks harvested per square mile
2006 Total Deer Take = 6.3 deer harvested per square mile
WMU 8P is located in northern Steuben County and contains a fair amount of public land. 2006 marked the first increase in buck harvest in 8P since 2002, and while it is still below objective, we anticipate the buck take and total population will continue to rebound further upwards in 2007. Barring unforeseen events, hunters can expect to see a slow rise in deer numbers over the next couple years. The management strategy will be to slowly increase doe harvests during that time with increasing numbers of DMPs issued to match the growth, although overall DMP numbers will still be moderate. Chances for DMP selection will be high for first permits for residents and non-residents both, however preference points will be needed by residents on second permits. There will be no permits for non-residents available.
WMU 8R
Area = 270 square miles
BTO = 4.2 bucks harvested per square mile
2006 Buck Take = 3.9 bucks harvested per square mile
2006 Total Deer Take = 9.7 deer harvested per square mile
WMU 8R includes most of Yates County, as well as parts of Steuben and Schuyler Counties and has a fair amount of public hunting land. Last fall's buck take in 8R was 3.9 per square mile, which is a little below objective and down from 4.3 in 2005. The decline in buck take was anticipated due to a higher than planned doe take in 2004. However, the drop in buck harvest was likely a one-year event, and we anticipate the population overall is increasing and buck take will head back up this fall, perhaps crossing above objective once again. In anticipation of this, DMPs will be increased marginally such that both resident and non-resident chance of selection will be high for first permits. Second permit chances will be low for residents, with no second permits available for non-residents.
WMU 8S
Area = 256 square miles
BTO = 4.2 bucks harvested per square mile
2006 Buck Take = 2.8 bucks harvested per square mile
2006 Total Deer Take = 5.9 deer harvested per square mile
WMU 8S includes portions of Schuyler and Seneca Counties and is home to the Finger Lakes National Forest, a large tract of federal land open to hunting. Despite low DMP availability and reduced doe harvest since 2003, this unit's deer population has not shown the same signs of recovery that have been seen in our other southern units. Accordingly, DMP allocation will be reduced again this fall such that only landowners, disabled veterans, and applicants with preference points will be eligible for permits. Hunters should expect roughly the same deer population as last fall.
WMU 8T
Area = 385 square miles
BTO = 4.8 bucks harvested per square mile
2006 Buck Take = 3.6 bucks harvested per square mile
2006 Total Deer Take = 7.2 deer harvested per square mile
WMU 8T is in central Steuben County and has ample public hunting land available. This unit has followed the same pattern seen the last few years in most of our Southern Tier units. Namely, buck harvests declined starting in 2003, continued down in 2004, leveled off or started upwards in 2005 and currently continue upwards. The buck take in 8T increased in 2006 to 3.6 bucks per square mile- still well below the objective of 4.8 but rising slowly and steadily now. Hunters should expect this trend in buck harvest to continue for the fall of 2007, but the increase will likely not be dramatic. Chances of DMP selection have been raised slightly to medium for residents on first permits. As was the case last year, no second permits or permits for non-residents will be available.
WMU 8W
Area = 439 square miles
BTO = 3.8 bucks harvested per square mile
2006 Buck Take = 2.7 bucks harvested per square mile
2006 Total Deer Take = 4.8 deer harvested per square mile
WMU 8W includes portions of Chemung and Schuyler Counties and holds abundant public hunting opportunities. Conditions in Unit 8W continue to mirror those in 8T, as populations are still significantly below objective but are rising slowly and steadily. A late-to-arrive and relatively easy winter should have allowed most deer to survive in good shape. Combined with low permit numbers the last few years, hunters can expect a few more deer, but gains will be modest. Chances for DMP selection will be high for first permits for residents and non-residents both. Odds of selection are low for residents on second permits, and no second permits will be available for non-residents.
WMU 8X
Area = 401 square miles
BTO = None
2006 Buck Take = 4.1 bucks harvested per square mile
2006 Total Deer Take = 9.5 deer harvested per square mile
WMU 8X is located in southern Steuben County and has a fair amount of public land available. This unit, like 8N, has no set population objective and has seen an overly-abundant deer population come down to a more reasonable level in recent years. Even though DMPs have been in relatively short supply for a few years now, a harvest of does slightly more than expected last fall may slow recovery somewhat. We do however, expect that the population is increasing and buck take will be slightly greater in 8X this year. DMP availability will be increased a little to keep pace. Chances for first permit selection will be high and medium for residents and non-residents respectively. There will be no second permits available for either applicant group.
WMU 8Y
Area = 354 square miles
BTO = 4.5 bucks harvested per square mile
2006 Buck Take = 3.2 bucks harvested per square mile
2006 Total Deer Take = 6.5 deer harvested per square mile
WMU 8Y occupies the southern half of Chemung and a small portion of Steuben County and has very limited public hunting opportunities. Like most of our southern units, buck harvest in 8Y stabilized in 2005 and increased in 2006. Reduced doe takes and favorable weather conditions in recent years should allow for population increases to continue at a modest pace. DMPs will be more numerous than the last couple years but still well below pre-2004 levels. Both resident and non-resident chance of selection will be high for first permits. Second permit chances will be low for residents, with no second permits available for non-residents.
