Region 8 Deer Forecast
The deer harvest in Region 8 last season was almost a carbon copy of that seen in 2007. Hunters took 53,299 deer last fall, just 1% less than the previous year. Of those, 20,620 were adult bucks. Predictions going into last season were for slightly higher buck takes, but miserable weather the first few days of the 2008 southern zone big game season hampered hunter's efforts, resulting in lower than usual success. The resultant lower harvest during this prime hunting period proved difficult to overcome later in the season.
Unit by unit, the buck take was slightly down in eight of our fifteen regional Wildlife Management Units (WMUs), up in three, and unchanged in four. Gains and declines were equally spread between our northern Lake Plains and our Southern Tier units. In general, herd sizes in our northern six units (8A, 8C, 8F, 8G, 8H, and 8J) are at or above population objectives recommended by Citizen Task Forces, while those in our southern units (8M, 8N, 8P, 8R, 8S, 8T, 8W, 8X, and 8Y) are at or below. As has been the case for several years now, the challenge up north is still to reduce numbers a bit, while in the south, we need to monitor and continue to allow for a steady rise toward objectives.
Citizen Task Forces were completed in WMUs 8A, 8F, and 8S in 2009. The completion of these units, added to the two done last year (8N and 8X) means that one-third of our units now have revised buck take objectives that are reflective of public desires. We plan on holding task forces in our remaining ten units over the next three years, at which time we will start the rotation again.
Deer hunting prospects for this fall remain excellent in Region 8. Buck take should be very similar to last year, and hunters should expect to see similar numbers of deer in the woods as last season. Chances for antlerless deer should be excellent as well, with 176,000 Deer Management Permits (DMPs) available this year for Region 8 hunters, only 6% less than 2007's total.
Unit Summary for the 2009 Season
Included in the discussion of most WMUs is a term called the Buck Take Objective (BTO). The BTO for a WMU is the desired number of antlered bucks expected to be harvested per square mile when the WMU's deer population is at the level recommended by the Citizen Task Force. The BTO is not the estimated take for the coming season but rather is the objective of our management efforts. The annual buck harvest is used as a gauge of population size and it's relationship to the desired population level.
WMU 8A
Area = 419 square miles
BTO = 2.1 bucks harvested per square mile
2008 Buck Take = 2.5 bucks harvested per square mile
2008 Total Deer Take = 6.7 deer harvested per square mile
WMU 8A is situated primarily in northern Orleans and Monroe Counties and contains very little public land. The terrain is mostly flat to gently rolling and has an abundance of agriculture interspersed with small wood lots which makes for excellent habitat and large deer. A Citizen Task Force was convened in 8A this past spring, and set a new harvest objective of 2.1 bucks per square mile, up from the old objective of 1.5. The buck take went down just a touch last fall, to 2.5 bucks per square mile, and considering the new objective, we are closer now to target than we've been in a long while. The annual Bow Hunter Sighting Log index has mirrored the buck take very well in this unit. Hunters can expect this fall's deer population to be similar or slightly less than experienced in 2008, but the change will not be dramatic and shouldn't be noticeable to most hunters. Chances of receiving first and second permits will be high for both residents and nonresidents alike.
WMU 8C
Area = 138 square miles
BTO = None
2008 Buck Take = 0.8 bucks harvested per square mile
2008 Total Deer Take = 2.3 deer harvested per square mile
WMU 8C is a small "bowhunting only" unit surrounding the City of Rochester in Monroe County and has historically contained a high deer population relative to the associated human development. Deer harvest here is governed largely by land access, not number of permits available. If desired, anyone applying for a DMP should receive two permits. Both buck take and total deer take went up here last fall, demonstrating an expanding population which needs to be actively controlled. Chances of success are high in 8C, but because hunting access is limited, applicants are advised to secure a hunting location before applying for DMPs. Note also that deer hunters in this unit must have passed a Bowhunter Education course, and the only legal hunting implement is bow and arrow. To assist in reducing the growth of this deer population, Bonus Permits for deer of either sex will be available again for hunters who fill their WMU 8C DMPs. Those hunters taking antlerless deer on Bonus Permits may continue to receive additional Bonus Permits as long as they continue to be used to harvest antlerless deer.
WMU 8F
Area = 733 square miles
BTO = 2.0 bucks harvested per square mile
2008 Buck Take = 2.7 bucks harvested per square mile
2008 Total Deer Take = 7.2 deer harvested per square mile
WMU 8F occupies most of Wayne and a portion of Monroe County and contains a good deal of agriculture, including significant orchard acreage. The lay of the land is flat to rolling in the north with numerous drumlins (glacially carved hills) in the south. Large wetlands and significant forest cover exist, particularly in the northeast portion of the unit. There is ample public hunting land in eastern WMU 8F. A new Citizen Task Force was held in 8F this past spring which set a harvest objective of 2.0 bucks per square mile, up marginally from the old goal of 1.9. Buck harvest last fall was the same as in 2007, at 2.7 per square mile, but still considerably above target level, indicating a deer population that is higher than the public would like. A high doe harvest in 2007 should help lower this population somewhat, and should result in slightly fewer bucks taken this fall. After this season, the deer herd in 8F will still be higher than desired however, and relatively high antlerless harvest will still be needed in this unit for the foreseeable future. A record number of DMPs will be available this fall, with chances of selection high for residents and nonresidents on both first and second permits.
WMU 8G
Area = 686 square miles
BTO = 2.3 bucks harvested per square mile
2008 Buck Take = 3.2 bucks harvested per square mile
2008 Total Deer Take = 8.9 deer harvested per square mile
WMU 8G comprises most of Genesee County and the southern portion of Orleans County. It contains a large expanse of state and federal land in the western part of the unit. This unit has some of the region's best agricultural land, and the deer habitat here in the Lake Plains of Western New York is among the most productive in the state. Land is flat to gently rolling, with small wood lots interspersed with farms and wetlands. Buck harvest dropped to 3.2 per square mile last fall, down from 3.4 in 2007, but it's still above the objective of 2.3. A near-record adult female take in 2007 should help send the population down a bit, but it will still be above the objective after this season. The deer population in WMU 8G has proven to be a challenge to bring under control. More flexibility to achieve the necessary antlerless take is needed. There may be a few less deer available this fall, but it won't be a dramatic difference, nor discernable by most hunters. Slightly fewer DMPs will be available, but chances of receiving first and second permits will still be high for both resident and nonresident applicants.
WMU 8H
Area = 574 square miles
BTO = 2.8 bucks harvested per square mile
2008 Buck Take = 3.9 bucks harvested per square mile
2008 Total Deer Take = 10.6 deer harvested per square mile
WMU 8H includes parts of Livingston, Monroe, and Ontario Counties and has limited public land accessible for hunting. This is another typical Lake Plains unit; in other words, an ideal mix of habitat with big healthy deer and a productive population that has resisted our efforts at herd reduction. The herd has been well above objective for more than a decade now, and while the buck take might come down a little this fall, the trend over objective will likely continue for the foreseeable future. DMP availability will be unchanged from last year, and plentiful. Chances of receiving first and second permits this fall will be high for both resident and nonresident applicants.
WMU 8J
Area = 712 square miles
BTO = 2.1 bucks harvested per square mile
2008 Buck Take = 2.1 bucks harvested per square mile
2008 Total Deer Take = 5.2 deer harvested per square mile
WMU 8J includes portions of Seneca, Wayne, Ontario, and Yates Counties with a moderate amount of public hunting land available. A lot of agriculture exists in this unit, and WMU 8J has a history of producing big healthy deer. The deer herd in 8J has stayed pretty consistent, albeit just over objective, for many years now, but 2008 saw the buck take drop a little right to the target level. This may be short-lived though, as deer numbers will probably rebound some this season. A few more DMPs will be added to the mix this fall to keep the herd under control, and hunters should see deer numbers very similar to last year. Chances of receiving first and second permits this fall will be high again for both resident and nonresident applicants.
WMU 8M
Area = 307 square miles
BTO = 3.9 bucks harvested per square mile
2008 Buck Take = 3.3 bucks harvested per square mile
2008 Total Deer Take = 8.8 deer harvested per square mile
WMU 8M is situated primarily within southern Livingston County and holds plenty of public land. In many ways, it is a transitional unit, with both open agricultural land to the north and higher wooded hills to the south. 8M's buck take stayed constant in 2007, at 3.4 bucks per square mile, which is still a little below objective. The two lowest adult female harvests in more than a decade in 2005 and 2006 should allow the population to rise this year, and hunters may well notice a few more deer. We expect a somewhat higher buck take this fall, but not quite to objective yet. In keeping with the continued recovery in this unit, DMPs will once again be incrementally increased to account for the slowly growing population. Chances for DMPs will be high on first permits for both residents and non-residents, and high on second permits for residents. No second permits will be available for non-residents.
WMU 8N
Area = 314 square miles
BTO = 4.6 bucks harvested per square mile
2008 Buck Take = 5.1 bucks harvested per square mile
2008 Total Deer Take = 14.4 deer harvested per square mile
WMU 8N includes southern Ontario and portions of Livingston and Yates Counties. Many diverse public hunting opportunities exist in this largely wooded and hilly Western Finger Lakes unit. The deer situation remained status quo in 8N last season, with an identical buck take of 5.1 per square mile, as compared to 2007. The Bowhunter Sighting Log also indicates similar deer observation rates between 2007 and 2008. This suggests a stable overall population, but is still moderately above the objective of 4.6 bucks per square mile recommended by a Citizen Task Force last year. Moderate adult female harvests in 2006 and 2007 should not contribute to the buck take coming down much this fall, and hunters should expect to see deer numbers similar to last year. Deer Management Permits will once again be plentiful in an effort to bring the population down closer to our target. The chances of receiving first and second permits this fall will be high for both resident and nonresident applicants.
WMU 8P
Area = 356 square miles
BTO = 4.2 bucks harvested per square mile
2008 Buck Take = 3.4 bucks harvested per square mile
2008 Total Deer Take = 8.8 deer harvested per square mile
WMU 8P is located in northern Steuben County and contains a fair amount of public land. The terrain is rolling to hilly, and the unit contains a balanced mix of both farm land and forest. Like several of our units, the buck take in 2008 went down, contrary to our predictions. Poor hunting weather the first few days of the southern zone big game season was the likely culprit by lowering the harvest opening week. Barring unforeseen events, we expect the buck take in 8P to rise this season, and continue its recovery back toward the objective of 4.2 bucks per square mile. Hunters should expect to see a few more deer in the woods of 8P this fall. To allow the population to continue up, DMP availability will be reduced this fall. Chances will be high on first permits for both residents and nonresidents, but will drop to low on second permits for residents. No second permits will be available for nonresidents. 8P is scheduled to have its Buck Take Objective re-examined in 2010 through the CTF process.
WMU 8R
Area = 270 square miles
BTO = 4.2 bucks harvested per square mile
2008 Buck Take = 4.8 bucks harvested per square mile
2008 Total Deer Take = 13.1 deer harvested per square mile
WMU 8R includes most of Yates County, as well as parts of Steuben and Schuyler Counties and has a fair amount of public hunting land. Large rolling hills predominate, with an ample amount of farmland in the valleys and hill tops, including significant vineyard acreage. The buck take in 8R has only been below objective once in the last 10 years, in 2006. Last year it went further up, to 4.8 bucks per square mile. This unit has proven to be very productivity for deer, and our challenge is to keep the population from continuing to increase. This of course means the hunting prospects in 8R will be excellent this fall. DMPs will be increased slightly to keep pressure on the female segment of the herd. Chances of DMP selection will be high on first permits for both residents and nonresidents, and high on resident second permits. No second permits will be available for nonresidents. 8R is the third of three Region 8 units to have a CTF planned for 2010.
WMU 8S
Area = 256 square miles
BTO = 2.8 bucks harvested per square mile
2008 Buck Take = 2.9 bucks harvested per square mile
2008 Total Deer Take = 4.4 deer harvested per square mile
WMU 8S includes portions of Schuyler and Seneca Counties and is home to the Finger Lakes National Forest, a large tract of federal land open to hunting. Agriculture is the main land use in this unit except for in the southwest where the public land is located. Topography is flat in most of the unit except for the southwest corner. A Citizen Task Force held this past spring recommended a slight decrease in deer population from the 2009 level. This results in a considerable decrease in harvest objective from 4.2 to 2.8 bucks per square mile. This is now in line with buck takes recorded the last five years in this unit, and considering the sluggishness 8S has shown towards population expansion, the new BTO seems much more reflective of current conditions and a more realistic goal. That said, buck harvest did go up here a bit, to 2.9 per square mile last season, and our task now shifts to trying to keep it around there. To do so, more DMPs will be available this year than the last few. This unit is one where we are concerned about the harvest of antlerless deer by bow and muzzleloader hunters, particularly during years, such as the past few, when management calls for minimal doe take on DMPs. Resident applicants will have medium chances of selection for a first permit DMP in WMU 8S this fall.
WMU 8T
Area = 385 square miles
BTO = 4.8 bucks harvested per square mile
2008 Buck Take = 3.7 bucks harvested per square mile
2008 Total Deer Take = 8.7 deer harvested per square mile
WMU 8T is in central Steuben County and has ample public hunting land available. It is a typical southern tier unit in that it is hilly, with a mix of agriculture in the valleys, and forested slopes. The buck take in 8T had risen in each of the years from 2005 to 2007, but took a downturn, like half our units did last year, to 3.7 per square mile last fall. We believe this is probably a temporary drop, and expect the take of adult bucks to rise again in 2009. While it won't rise to the objective of 4.8 just yet, the steady increase seen in 2005-07 is a positive sign the unit is capable of recovery. DMP numbers this fall will stay on the modest side to allow for continued population growth. Chances of DMP selection will be high on first permits for residents only. There will be no second permits or permits for nonresidents this year.
WMU 8W
Area = 439 square miles
BTO = 3.8 bucks harvested per square mile
2008 Buck Take = 3.0 bucks harvested per square mile
2008 Total Deer Take = 7.3 deer harvested per square mile
WMU 8W includes portions of Chemung and Schuyler Counties and holds abundant public hunting opportunities. 8W is one of our most forested units, but open farmland does exist, particularly in the north and east portions of the unit. Like many of our southern units, buck harvests in 8T rose each of the years between 2005 and 2007, then dipped down a little last year. A sharp drop in Bow Log sightings last year suggests the dip in buck take was not entirely due to poor weather, and a small population decline did occur. Unfortunately, rising adult female harvest the last two years may prevent this unit's deer herd from growing much until 2011. Deer Management Permits will be reduced this year in an effort to allow for future expansion. Chances of DMP selection will be high on first permits for both residents and nonresidents, and second permits will only go to landowners and disabled vets. No nonresident second permits will be available.
WMU 8X
Area = 401 square miles
BTO = 4.1 bucks harvested per square mile
2008 Buck Take = 4.5 bucks harvested per square mile
2008 Total Deer Take = 12.6 deer harvested per square mile
WMU 8X is located in southern Steuben County and has a fair amount of public land available. The unit is hilly, with the highest elevations and most forest cover in the northern portion. A good deal of farm land occurs in the southern valleys, particularly along portions of the New York-Pennsylvania border. A 2008 Citizen Task Force recommended the population be reduced slightly from the 2008 level and a new BTO of 4.1 was established. Increasing doe harvests the last two years should send the population down a little more and we should be very close to target after this season. We will be backing off on DMPs this fall in an attempt to avoid further declines in buck take. If all goes as planned, we should be shifting into stability mode in 2010. Chances of DMP selection will be high on first permits for both residents and nonresidents, but low for resident second permits. No second permits will be available for nonresidents.
WMU 8Y
Area = 354 square miles
BTO = 4.5 bucks harvested per square mile
2008 Buck Take = 3.5 bucks harvested per square mile
2008 Total Deer Take = 8.1 deer harvested per square mile
WMU 8Y occupies the southern half of Chemung and a small portion of Steuben County and has very limited public hunting opportunities. It is another of our most heavily forested units, but also contains the relatively large cities of Corning and Elmira. Buck harvest held steady here in 2008, after recovering somewhat from a low point in 2005. But further population gains are needed if we are to reach the existing BTO of 4.5 per square mile, and DMP availability will be reduced this fall to allow more population growth. Hunters in 8Y should expect to see similar numbers of deer this fall as compared to last. Chances of DMP selection will be high on first permits for both residents and nonresidents, but low for resident second permits. No second permits will be available for nonresidents.
Art Kirsch
Region 8 Deer Biologist
