Region 9 Deer Forecast
Region 9 is comprised primarily of two major ecozones. The first being the Lake Plains for Lakes Erie and Ontario. This area is characterized by flat topography with human activity focused on agriculture and residential uses. The lake plains are considered good deer habitat as it offers an abundance of food and mild winters. The second ecozone is know as the Appalachian Plateau. This area is characterized by rolling hills and vast expanses of forest land. Human habitation is much less dense than in the northern half of the region. This area offers excellent deer hunting opportunities, due to juxtaposition of forest and agricultural lands. The southern tier counties of Chautauqua, Cattaraugus and Allegany counties make up the majority of this ecozone existing in Region 9. There are many opportunities for public access and hunting throughout this region, with better access occurring in the southern tier counties. The 2006 deer harvest in Region 9 was on target with DEC expectations. All of the Region's Wildlife Management Units (WMUs) in Erie, Niagara and Wyoming Counties are at or slightly above determined population objectives. Most of the WMUs in the southern tier counties of Allegany, Chautauqua and Cattaraugus, remain at or slightly below deer population objectives. The 2006 harvest indicates that the deer population is responding to management efforts. With only slight to moderate increases in antlerless deer taken last year along with another mild winter over most of the region, expect the 2007 deer harvest to be higher than 2006. Wyoming and northeastern Allegany Counties experienced a more severe winter than the rest of the region. Despite more than 30 days with snow depths over 20 inches, little if any winter mortality was observed. To keep pace with the increasing deer population in the southern WMUs and continue to reduce deer numbers in the northern WMUs, approximately 60% more Deer Management Permits (DMPs) will be available in the Region for 2007, with most units seeing an increase in availability.
Unit Summary for the 2007 Season
Included in the discussion of most Wildlife Management Units (WMUs) is a term called the Buck Take Objective (BTO). The BTO for a WMU is the desired number of antlered bucks expected to be harvested per square mile when the WMU's deer population is at the desired level as determined by the Citizen Task Force. The BTO is not the estimated take for the coming season but rather is the objective of our management efforts. The annual buck harvest is used as a gauge of population size and it's relationship to the desired population level.
WMU 9A
Area = 462 square miles
BTO = 1.1 bucks harvested per square mile
2006 Buck Take = 1.7 bucks harvested per square mile
2006 Total Deer Take = 3.9 deer harvested per square mile
WMU 9A is situated primarily in Niagara and Erie Counties and is characterized by relatively flat land sloping north toward Lake Ontario. The majority of the landscape is comprised of small stands of mixed hardwood forest and agricultural fields with a number of wetlands intermixed. Buck take in 9A has consistently been above objective despite liberal DMP allocations. High harvest of female deer in 2004 and 2005 did manage to bring the 2006 buck take down slightly but not down to the objective. DMP numbers will increase again this year to lower the population closer to the objective. Resident applicants will have a high probability of obtaining a first permit in WMU 9A and high chance for a second permit as well. Non-resident hunters might well consider 9A in their DMP selection for its liberal availability of antlerless permits.
WMU 9F
Area = 277 square miles
BTO = 2.5 bucks harvested per square mile
2006 Buck Take = 2.8 bucks harvested per square mile
2006 Total Deer Take = 5.8 deer harvested per square mile
WMU 9F is located in Erie and Niagara Counties, primarily in the suburban areas northeast and east of metro Buffalo. This area is highly residential with a number of medium-sized family farms. Old abandoned farm fields make up the majority of the non-residential landscape with a few small parcels of hardwood forest interspersed. There is no public access to hunting areas in this unit. The deer population in this unit has consistently been above the BTO, but high harvest levels of female deer in 2004 and 2005 have reduced the population closer to the objective. As expected, the 2006 buck take was less than the 2005 take but slightly above the objective of 2.5 bucks per square mile. It is expected that the 2007 take will be very similar to last year's, as the population gets closer to the objective level. Resident applicants will have a high probability of receiving a first permit, and a high probability of receiving a second permit as well. Non-resident applicants will have a high probability of receiving a first permit. There will no second permits available to non-residents.
WMU 9G
Area = 230 square miles
BTO = 2.0 bucks harvested per square mile
2006 Buck Take = 2.0 bucks harvested per square mile
2006 Total Deer Take = 4.0 deer harvested per square mile
WMU 9G includes portions of Erie and Chautauqua counties sloping west toward Lake Erie. The unit includes a mix of suburban residential areas, large vineyards, old farm fields mixed with hardwood and the occasional conifer stands. The southern portion of 9G is primarily agricultural, and there are no public hunting areas available in this unit. The deer population in WMU 9G continues to be at objective levels. In an effort to stabilize the population near the objective, fewer DMPs were available last fall. In 2007, a moderate increase in DMPs will provide for good opportunity to harvest antlerless deer, while maintaining current population levels. Resident applicants will have a high probability of receiving a first permit, and a low probability of receiving a second permit. Non-resident applicants will have a high probability of receiving a first permit. There will no second permits available to non-residents.
WMU 9H
Area = 973 square miles
BTO = 4.0 bucks harvested per square mile
2006 Buck Take = 3.6 bucks harvested per square mile
2006 Total Deer Take = 7.8 deer harvested per square mile
This large WMU includes portions of Erie and Wyoming Counties. Although there is limited public access in this unit, it is well known for producing some of the best quality bucks in western New York. The unit includes some residential areas, but the majority of this heavily hunted unit is either agricultural or mature forest. Rolling hills make up the majority of the landscape, with many freshwater wetlands interspersed. Visiting hunters should consider Carlton Hill Multiple Use Area (MUA). The deer population in WMU 9H has stabilized nicely, with a slight increase in harvest in 2006. As the population approaches objective levels, increases in DMP issuance are necessary to slow growth. Despite winter snow depths that haven't been seen in this unit since 2003, good survival and recruitment of fawns is likely. A moderately higher DMP target is designed to harvest about 2270 adult females, and is intended slow growth as population approaches levels prescribed by the BTO. Resident applicants will have a high probability of receiving a first permit, and a low probability of receiving a second permit. Non-resident applicants will have a high probability of receiving a first permit. There will be no second permits available to non-residents.
WMU 9J
Area = 694 square miles
BTO = 3.5 bucks harvested per square mile
2006 Buck Take = 3.4 bucks harvested per square mile
2006 Total Deer Take = 7.0 deer harvested per square mile
WMU 9J is situated entirely in Chautauqua County and is characterized by gentle hills sloping toward Lake Erie. This unit is highly agricultural with many large family farms and vineyards. The southwest corner of the unit contains some large freshwater wetlands. Visiting hunters should consider Watts Flats Wildlife Management Area (WMA). The deer population in 9J was above objective from 1995 through 2003, but high levels of female harvest brought the population below objective for 2004 and 2005. As expected, the 2006 harvest brought the population to objective levels, and it is anticipated that it will remain there in 2007-2008. A considerable number of DMPs will be available this fall in order to slow population growth and prevent rapid fluctuations above the objective. Resident applicants will have a high probability of receiving a first permit, and a medium probability of receiving a second permit as well. Non-resident applicants will have a high probability of receiving a first permit. There will no second permits available to non-residents.
WMU 9K
Area = 446 square miles
BTO = 4.0 bucks harvested per square mile
2006 Buck Take = 3.0 bucks harvested per square mile
2006 Total Deer Take = 6.1 deer harvested per square mile
WMU 9K includes portions of Chautauqua and Cattaraugus Counties. Mostly rural bottomland, this unit is predominantly agricultural with some large stands of hardwood forests and an occasional conifer stand. The unit has very limited public access, and visiting hunters should consider Canadaway Creek Wildlife Management Area (WMA). The deer population in this WMU has undergone a large fluctuation over the past decade, with buck takes varying from 1.8 bucks per square mile in 1994 to 4.6 in 2000. Buck harvest was higher in 2006, but still considerably below the BTO. The prescription for this unit is to allow for slow growth of the population, while providing opportunity for harvesting of antlerless deer. A slight increase in the number of DMPs should provide a harvest of approximately 770 adult female deer. Resident applicants without preference points will have a high probability of receiving a first permit. There will be no permits available to non-resident hunters.
WMU 9M
Area = 330 square miles
BTO = 5.1 bucks harvested per square mile
2006 Buck Take = 4.3 bucks harvested per square mile
2006 Total Deer Take = 8.0 deer harvested per square mile
WMU 9M is entirely encompassed within Cattaraugus County and is typified by rolling hills and a mix of hardwood forest and agricultural lands. Some larger conifer forests exist on southern end of this unit. WMU 9M has relatively little public access to hunting, and visiting hunters should consider Zoar Valley Multiple Use Area. The deer population in this unit has stabilized and is slowly approaching levels prescribed by the BTO. As expected, the 2006 buck take was higher than in previous years. A moderate increase in the number of DMPs will still allow for growth while providing good opportunities for hunting. It is expected that the 2007 buck harvest will be approximately 4.7 bucks per square mile. Resident applicants will have a high probability of receiving a first permit. The will be no second permits available, nor will permits be available to non-residents.
WMU 9N
Area = 207 square miles
BTO = 3.5 bucks harvested per square mile
2006 Buck Take = 3.8 bucks harvested per square mile
2006 Total Deer Take = 7.8 deer harvested per square mile
WMU 9N includes portions of Allegany, Cattaraugus and Wyoming Counties and is comprised of rolling hills and large tracts of hardwood forest throughout with the occasional wetland area. This unit is sparsely occupied with family farms and has limited public access for hunting. Reduced harvests of female deer in 2004 and 2005 resulted in an increasing deer population with a buck take in 2006 closer to the BTO. As the population approaches that prescribed by the BTO, the unit can support a higher harvest of antlerless deer. As is the case with several other Region 9 WMUs, the number of DMPs available this fall will increase to slow population growth. Resident applicants will have a high probability of receiving a first permit, and a high probability of receiving a second permit as well. Non-resident applicants will have a high probability of receiving a first permit. There will no second permits available to non-residents.
WMU 9P
Area = 582 square miles
BTO = 6.0 bucks harvested per square mile
2006 Buck Take = 4.3 bucks harvested per square mile
2006 Total Deer Take = 8.2 deer harvested per square mile
WMU 9P is situated primarily in Allegany County but includes small portions of Livingston and Steuben Counties. With large rolling hills, this unit is more heavily forested with a good mix of hardwood and conifer forests. Some rural agriculture exists in the lower elevations. WMU 9P has a large amount of public property open to hunting. Visiting hunters should consider Keaney Swamp or Rattlesnake Hill WMAs. Buck take in 9P peaked in 2000 at 7.2 bucks per square mile but has subsequently dropped as a result of intentional increased harvest of female deer through 2003. As expected, the 2006 buck take was slightly larger than in 2005. Since the population is still well below the BTO, only a small increase in DMPs is advisable this year. In contrast to last year, when preference points were needed, resident applicants will have a high probability of receiving a first permit. There will be no second permits available to residents, nor will DMPs be available to non-residents.
WMU 9R
Area = 217 square miles
BTO = 4.1 bucks harvested per square mile
2006 Buck Take = 2.9 bucks harvested per square mile
2006 Total Deer Take = 6.7 deer harvested per square mile
WMU 9R is situated primarily in Cattaraugus County on the foothills of the Allegany Mountains. The eastern boundary of this unit is made up of valleys and lowlands associated with the Allegany Reservoir. The unit is more heavily forested than areas to the north. There are several parcels of state land in WMU 9R that provide opportunities for hunting. Prior to 2005, this unit had experienced three successive years of high female removal rates resulting in a reduced deer population. Dramatically reduced harvest of female deer in 2005 coupled with mild winter conditions allowed the population to begin growing toward the objective level. Similar to other units in the Region, the buck take in 2006 was slightly higher than in previous years, but still below objective. A slight decrease in DMP allocation is needed to allow for a small harvest of antlerless deer while still permitting population growth. Resident applicants without preference points will have a medium probability of receiving a first permit. There will be no second permits available, nor will DMPs be available to non-residents.
WMU 9S
Area = 92 square miles
BTO = 3.1 bucks harvested per square mile
2006 Buck Take = 1.9 bucks harvested per square mile
2006 Total Deer Take = 3.6 deer harvested per square mile
WMU 9S is comprised primarily of Allegany State Park, making it the WMU with the most public land available in western New York. This unit is almost entirely forested with a good combination of hardwood and mixed forest. A few larger water bodies exist within this unit, including the Allegany Reservoir. Ample opportunities for hunting exist, but separate hunting permits must be secured from New York State Office of Parks, Recreation and Historic Preservation for hunting within the Park. The large wooded tracts and limited road access within WMU 9S are unique in western New York. The population of deer in this unit is currently well below the objective after having been above objective from 2000 through 2003. It was expected that the 2006 buck harvest would be higher than previous year's. Unfortunately, the deer population has not responded to recent management efforts to raise the population. For that reason, it is necessary to limit the availability of DMPs. Resident applicants without preference points will have a medium probability of receiving a first permit. There will be no second permits available, nor will DMPs be available to non-residents.
WMU 9T
Area = 248 square miles
BTO = 4.4 bucks harvested per square mile
2006 Buck Take = 3.1 bucks harvested per square mile
2006 Total Deer Take = 5.7 deer harvested per square mile
WMU 9T is located in Cattaraugus County and contains a moderate amount of public hunting access. The unit is primarily forested, though a few small family farms are interspersed across the landscape. The deer population in this unit was intentionally reduced from levels above objective several years ago. As expected the 2006 season resulted in a slightly larger harvest, moving toward the population goal. A moderate increase in the number of DMPs should provide for increased hunting opportunities while allowing the population to grow toward objective. Resident applicants will have a high probability of receiving a first permit. Residents will need preference points to qualify for a second permit.. Non-resident applicants will have a high probability of receiving a first permit, with no second permits being available.
WMU 9W
Area = 260 square miles
BTO = 4.4 bucks harvested per square mile
2006 Buck Take = 3.9 bucks harvested per square mile
2006 Total Deer Take = 7.4 deer harvested per square mile
WMU 9W includes portions of Cattaraugus and Allegany counties and is similar in character to WMU 9N. The unit is heavily forested with a number of medium sized farms in the northern portion. WMU 9W contains several areas with public access for hunting, and visiting hunters should consider Hanging Bog Wildlife Management Area (WMA). The deer population in this unit was intentionally reduced from levels above objective several years ago. It is expected that the buck harvest will be right at objective levels for 2007. This unit has demonstrated potential for rapid population growth, and to moderate the rate of population growth, availability of DMPs will be increased this season. In contrast to last year, when preference points were required, resident applicants will have a high probability of receiving a first permit, with no second permits available. DMPs will not be available to non-residents.
WMU 9X
Area = 219 square miles
BTO = 5.8 bucks harvested per square mile
2006 Buck Take = 3.7 bucks harvested per square mile
2006 Total Deer Take = 6.2 deer harvested per square mile
WMU 9X is situated in Allegany and Cattaraugus counties and does not have any public lands accessible for hunting. This unit is characterized by large forested ridges running north-south as waters drain south into Pennsylvania. Mostly mixed hardwood forest, the unit does include a spattering of small farms and a few wetlands. The deer population has recovered nicely from levels seen several years ago. Although the deer population is still below objective, moderate growth in 2006 suggests that things are headed in the right direction. Although DMP allocations remain well below record levels, there will still be ample opportunity to harvest antlerless deer. Unlike last year when preference points were required, resident applicants have a high probability of receiving a first permit. Preference points will be needed for a resident to receive a second permit. Non-resident applicants will have a high probability of receiving a first permit. There will be no second permits available to non-residents.
WMU 9Y
Area = 125 square miles
BTO = 5.0 bucks harvested per square mile
2006 Buck Take = 4.6 bucks harvested per square mile
2006 Total Deer Take = 7.7 deer harvested per square mile
WMU 9Y is located in southeastern Allegany county. Mostly forested, this unit is comprised of round topped hills and valley floors. Little agriculture is found here, but the occasional family farm does exist. Some larger tracts of state forest land can be found on the north end. After being at the objective in 2004, buck take in 9Y dropped slightly in 2005. Management efforts in 2006 were geared at raising the population to levels prescribed by the BTO. As the buck harvest approaches the BTO, it will be necessary to slow growth in the population. A moderate increase in DMPs for 2007 should stabilize the population for future years. Resident applicants will have a high probability of receiving a first permit, and a low probability of receiving a second permit. Non-resident applicants will have a high probability of receiving a first permit. There will no second permits available to non-residents.
