Region 9 Deer Forecast
Region 9 is comprised primarily of two major ecozones, the first being the Lake Plains of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. This area is characterized by flat topography with relatively high human densities and land uses focused on agriculture and residential uses. The Lake Plains area is considered good deer habitat as it offers an abundance of food and mild winters. The second ecozone is the Appalachian Plateau and is characterized by rolling hills and vast expanses of forested land. This area offers excellent deer hunting opportunities, due to a healthy mix of forest and agricultural lands. There are many opportunities for public access and hunting throughout this region, with better access occurring in the southern tier counties.
The 2008 deer harvest in Region 9 was on target with DEC expectations. Wildlife Management Units (WMUs) 9A, 9F, and 9G in the northern portion of Region 9 are above harvest objectives, while units in the central and southern part of the region are near or below objective levels. Overall, the 2008 harvest was down slightly from that of 2007. Much of the decrease in harvest is attributable to weather conditions experienced on opening weekend of the 2008 Southern Zone Regular Season. Harvest trends and Bowhunter Sighting Log data suggest the deer population is healthy and continuing to increase. Yet further population growth is needed to reach objective levels in many units and conservative doe harvest is appropriate.
Unit Summary for the 2009 Season
Included in the discussion of most WMUs is a term called the Buck Take Objective (BTO). The BTO for a WMU is the desired number of antlered bucks expected to be harvested per square mile when the WMU's deer population is at the level recommended by the Citizen Task Force. The BTO is not the estimated take for the coming season but rather is the objective of our management efforts. The annual buck harvest is used as a gauge of population size and it's relationship to the desired population level.
WMU 9A
Area = 462 square miles
BTO = 1.1 bucks harvested per square mile
2008 Buck Take = 2.0 bucks harvested per square mile
2008 Total Deer Take = 4.7 deer harvested per square mile
WMU 9A is situated primarily in Niagara and Erie Counties and is characterized by relatively flat land sloping north toward Lake Ontario. The majority of the landscape is comprised of small stands of mixed hardwood forest and agricultural fields with a number of wetlands intermixed. Hartland Swamp Wildlife Management Area is the only public hunting land available in this unit, so most hunters will need to arrange access to private lands. Buck take in 9A has consistently been above objective despite liberal DMP allocations. DMP numbers will increase by this year as we continue to pressure the population toward objective levels. Resident and nonresident applicants will have a high probability of obtaining first and second permits in WMU 9A.
WMU 9F
Area = 277 square miles
BTO = 2.5 bucks harvested per square mile
2008 Buck Take = 3.2 bucks harvested per square mile
2008 Total Deer Take = 7.3 deer harvested per square mile
WMU 9F is located in Erie and Niagara Counties, primarily in the suburban areas northeast and east of metro Buffalo. This area is highly residential with a number of medium-sized family farms. Old abandoned farm fields make up the majority of the nonresidential landscape with a few small parcels of hardwood forest interspersed. There is no public access for hunting in this unit. The deer population in this unit has consistently been above the BTO, but high harvest levels of female deer in past years have reduced the population closer to the objective. A slightly more conservative harvest of antlerless deer is warranted this year as the population continues to decrease to harvest objectives, but resident and nonresident DMP applicants will still have a high probability of receiving first and second permits.
WMU 9G
Area = 230 square miles
BTO = 2.0 bucks harvested per square mile
2008 Buck Take = 2.5 bucks harvested per square mile
2008 Total Deer Take = 6.3 deer harvested per square mile
WMU 9G includes portions of Erie and Chautauqua counties sloping west toward Lake Erie. The unit includes a mix of suburban residential areas, large vineyards, old farm fields mixed with hardwood and the occasional conifer stands. The southern portion of 9G is primarily agricultural. Hunters in this unit will need to arrange access to private lands, as there are no public hunting areas available. The deer population in WMU 9G continues to be close to but slightly above objective levels. A moderate increase in DMP availability and antlerless harvest in 2008 set the stage for a slight population reduction. For 2009, the goal is to decrease the antlerless harvest slightly as the population approaches the objective level. Resident applicants will have a high probability of receiving a first permit, and a medium probability of receiving a second permit. Nonresident applicants will have a high probability of receiving a first permit, but there will no second permits available to nonresidents.
WMU 9H
Area = 973 square miles
BTO = 4.0 bucks harvested per square mile
2008 Buck Take = 3.7 bucks harvested per square mile
2008 Total Deer Take = 8.2 deer harvested per square mile
This large WMU includes portions of Erie and Wyoming Counties. Although there is limited public access in this unit, it is well known for producing some of the best quality bucks in western New York. The unit includes some residential areas, but the majority of this heavily hunted unit is either agricultural or mature forest. Rolling hills make up the majority of the landscape, with many freshwater wetlands interspersed. Visiting hunters should consider Carlton Hill Multiple Use Area (MUA) or Sulphur Springs Hill Cooperative Hunting Area. The deer population in WMU 9H has stabilized very near the objective, and the DMP target for 2009 will remain the same as last year. Resident applicants will have a high probability of receiving a first permit, and a low probability of receiving a second permit. Nonresident applicants will have a high probability of receiving a first permit, but there will no second permits available to nonresidents.
WMU 9J
Area = 694 square miles
BTO = 3.5 bucks harvested per square mile
2008 Buck Take = 3.1 bucks harvested per square mile
2008 Total Deer Take = 7.8 deer harvested per square mile
WMU 9J is situated entirely in Chautauqua County and is characterized by gentle hills sloping toward Lake Erie. This unit is highly agricultural with many large family farms and vineyards. The southwest corner of the unit contains some large freshwater wetlands. Visiting hunters should consider Watts Flats WMA or any one of the many NYSDEC state forest properties. The deer harvest in 9J has been right near objective levels since 2006. The goal for 2009 continues to provide for a stable population. A lower harvest in 2008, along with a relatively mild winter suggests that this unit could sustain a slightly higher antlerless harvest, without adversely affecting population. Without a more liberal harvest this year, the population could rise too quickly and be more difficult to manage in future years. Resident applicants will have a high probability of receiving a first permit, and a low probability of receiving a second permit as well. Nonresident applicants will have a high probability of receiving a first permit, but there will no second permits available to nonresidents.
WMU 9K
Area = 446 square miles
BTO = 4.0 bucks harvested per square mile
2008 Buck Take = 3.0 bucks harvested per square mile
2008 Total Deer Take = 6.9 deer harvested per square mile
WMU 9K includes portions of Chautauqua and Cattaraugus Counties. Mostly rural bottomland, this unit is predominantly agricultural with some large stands of hardwood forests and an occasional conifer stand. The unit has limited public access, and visiting hunters should consider Canadaway Creek Wildlife Management Area or any of the state forest lands. The deer population in this WMU has undergone a large fluctuation over the past decade, with buck takes varying from 1.8 bucks per square mile in 1994 to 4.6 in 2000 and back down to 2.7 bucks per square mile in 2005. To continue population growth toward objective, a modest reduction in DMPs and antlerless harvest will be needed this year. Resident applicants without preference points will have a high probability of receiving a first permit. There will be no second permits for resident hunters. There will be no permits available to nonresident hunters.
WMU 9M
Area = 330 square miles
BTO = 5.1 bucks harvested per square mile
2008 Buck Take = 4.0 bucks harvested per square mile
2008 Total Deer Take = 12.0 deer harvested per square mile
WMU 9M is entirely encompassed within Cattaraugus County and is typified by rolling hills and a mix of hardwood forest and agricultural lands. Some larger conifer forests exist on southern end of this unit. WMU 9M has relatively little public access to hunting, and visiting hunters should consider Zoar Valley Multiple Use Area or the few state forest tracts in the southern part of the unit. Similar to neighboring 9K, this unit also experienced a marked decrease in buck take in 2008, likely a result of rough weather during the opening week of the Regular Season. Other population indices suggest the population has been growing toward objective, but caution is advisable and DMPs will be reduced slightly in 2009 to continue population growth. Resident applicants will have a high probability of receiving a first permit and a low probability of receiving a second permit as well. Nonresident applicants will have a high probability of receiving a first permit, but there will no second permits available to nonresidents.
WMU 9N
Area = 207 square miles
BTO = 3.5 bucks harvested per square mile
2008 Buck Take = 3.4 bucks harvested per square mile
2008 Total Deer Take = 8.0 deer harvested per square mile
WMU 9N includes portions of Allegany, Cattaraugus and Wyoming Counties and is comprised of rolling hills and large tracts of hardwood forest throughout with the occasional wetland area. This unit is sparsely occupied with family farms and has limited public access for hunting. Hunters looking for public access should consider either Lost Nation State Forest or Swift Hill State Forest. The 2008 harvest indicates that the population is very near the objective, so the goal will be to stabilize numbers at their current level. In 2009, this means a slight increase in the number of DMPs issued to prevent population growth. Resident applicants will have a high probability of receiving a first permit, and a low probability of receiving a second permit as well. Nonresident applicants will have a high probability of receiving a first permit, but there will no second permits available to nonresidents.
WMU 9P
Area = 582 square miles
BTO = 6.0 bucks harvested per square mile
2008 Buck Take = 4.1 bucks harvested per square mile
2008 Total Deer Take = 8.4 deer harvested per square mile
WMU 9P is situated primarily in Allegany County but includes small portions of Livingston and Steuben Counties. With large rolling hills, this unit is more heavily forested with a good mix of hardwood and conifer forests. Some rural agriculture exists in the lower elevations. WMU 9P has a large amount of public property open to hunting. Visiting hunters should consider Keaney Swamp WMA, Rattlesnake Hill WMA or a host of state forest properties throughout this unit. Buck take in 9P peaked in 2000 at 7.2 bucks per square mile but has subsequently dropped as a result of an increased harvest of female deer through 2003. Since the population appears to have stabilized below the objective, a moderate decrease in the number of DMPs is required again this year. Resident applicants will have a medium probability of receiving a first permit. There will be no second permits available to residents, nor will DMPs be available to nonresidents.
WMU 9R
Area = 217 square miles
BTO = 4.1 bucks harvested per square mile
2008 Buck Take = 2.4 bucks harvested per square mile
2008 Total Deer Take = 4.6 deer harvested per square mile
WMU 9R is situated primarily in Cattaraugus County on the foothills of the Allegany Mountains. The eastern boundary of this unit is made up of valleys and lowlands associated with the Allegany Reservoir. The unit is more heavily forested than areas to the north. There are several parcels of state land in WMU 9R that provide opportunities for hunting. Hunters looking for public access should consider South Valley State Forest or Bucktooth State Forest. The 2008 buck take was less than expected and as with some other Region 9 units likely reflects rough weather during the opening week of the Regular Season last year. Other indices suggest an increasing population, and this fall we should begin to see the effects of several years of reduced antlerless harvest. Yet the population is still well below the objective level and conservative antlerless harvest will be continued in 2009. Resident applicants without preference points will have a low probability of receiving a first permit. There will be no second permits available for resident hunters and no DMPs available to nonresidents.
WMU 9S
Area = 92 square miles
BTO = 3.1 bucks harvested per square mile
2008 Buck Take = 1.6 bucks harvested per square mile
2008 Total Deer Take = 2.8 deer harvested per square mile
WMU 9S is comprised primarily of Allegany State Park, making it the WMU with the most public land available in western New York. This unit is almost entirely forested with a good combination of hardwood and mixed forest. A few larger water bodies exist within this unit, including the Allegany Reservoir. Ample opportunities for hunting exist, but separate hunting permits must be secured from New York State Office of Parks, Recreation and Historic Preservation for hunting within the Park. The large wooded tracts and limited road access within WMU 9S are unique in western New York. The population of deer in this unit remains well below the harvest objective, and it is necessary to remain conservative with DMPs for 2009. Resident applicants without preference points will have a medium probability of receiving a first permit. There will be no second permits available to residents and no DMPs available to nonresidents.
WMU 9T
Area = 248 square miles
BTO = 4.4 bucks harvested per square mile
2008 Buck Take = 2.3 bucks harvested per square mile
2008 Total Deer Take = 4.1 deer harvested per square mile
WMU 9T is located in Cattaraugus County and contains a small amount of public hunting access. The unit is primarily forested, though a few small family farms are interspersed across the landscape. Hunters requiring public access should consider Golden Hill State Forest and Windfall Creek State Forest. Like several other units in the southern tier, the 2008 deer take in this unit was likely impacted by rough weather during the opening week of the Regular Season. Yet the population remains well below objective levels, so DMPs will be reduced a bit for 2009. Resident applicants will have a low probability of receiving a first permit. There will be no second permit available for residents and no DMPs available for nonresident hunters.
WMU 9W
Area = 260 square miles
BTO = 4.4 bucks harvested per square mile
2008 Buck Take = 4.0 bucks harvested per square mile
2008 Total Deer Take = 8.2 deer harvested per square mile
WMU 9W includes portions of Cattaraugus and Allegany counties and is similar in character to WMU 9N. The unit is heavily forested with a number of medium sized farms in the northern portion. WMU 9W contains several areas with public access for hunting, and visiting hunters should consider Hanging Bog WMA or Bush Hill State Forest. It is expected that the buck harvest will be near objective levels for 2009. This unit has demonstrated potential for rapid population growth. Therefore, a moderate increase in DMPs is advised in order to slow growth as population continues toward harvest objectives. Resident applicants will have a high probability of receiving a first permit and a low probability of receiving a second permit. Nonresidents will have a high probability of receiving a first permit, but no second permits will be available to nonresidents.
WMU 9X
Area = 219 square miles
BTO = 5.8 bucks harvested per square mile
2008 Buck Take = 3.6 bucks harvested per square mile
2008 Total Deer Take = 6.7 deer harvested per square mile
WMU 9X is situated in Allegany and Cattaraugus counties and has no public lands accessible for hunting. This unit is characterized by large forested ridges running north-south as waters drain south into Pennsylvania. Mostly mixed hardwood forest, the unit does include a spattering of small farms and a few wetlands. The deer population is rebounding from levels seen several years ago, and further increases are expected for 2009. Resident hunters will have a medium probability of receiving a first permit and no second permits will be available. There will be no DMPs available for nonresident applicants.
WMU 9Y
Area = 125 square miles
BTO = 5.0 bucks harvested per square mile
2008 Buck Take = 4.8 bucks harvested per square mile
2008 Total Deer Take = 11.8 deer harvested per square mile
WMU 9Y is located in southeastern Allegany county. Mostly forested, this unit is comprised of round topped hills and valley floors. Little agriculture is found here, but the occasional family farm does exist. There is little public access to hunting lands in this unit. Hunters requiring access to public lands should consider either Phillips Creek State Forest or Vandermark State Forest. Hunters are advised to heed WMU boundary descriptions, as unit boundaries split the forest property. Deer harvests in 2007 and 2008 indicate the population is at the objective level, and our management effort is geared to stabilize the population. As a result, there will be no change in the in the number of DMPs available for 2009. Resident applicants will have a high probability of receiving a first permit, and a low probability of receiving a second permit. Nonresident applicants will have a high probability of receiving a first permit, but no second permits will be available to nonresidents.
Tim Spierto
Region 9 Deer Biologist
