2007 Deer Hunting Season Forecasts

Statewide Deer Forecast

New York is looking forward to another safe and successful deer hunting season in 2007. Deer survival through winter was good in most areas and the spring fawning season appears to have been very productive. Deer numbers should be higher in most Wildlife Management Units (WMUs) compared to last fall. Hunters throughout much of the state saw a slight increase in deer harvest in 2006, and DEC expects further increases in 2007.

The 2006 harvest of almost 96,600 bucks was an encouraging 8% increase over the 89,200 bucks taken in 2005, suggesting that deer population in many portions of the State are growing slowly and recent management actions are working. The 2006 antlerless take remained stable from 2005, despite a nominal increase in Deer Management Permits (DMPs) in 2006. DMPs are valid only for the taking of antlerless deer and serve as the cornerstone for statewide deer management efforts. DMP allocations were reduced in much of New York in 2004 and 2005 in an effort to slow and stop population decline in specific areas of the state and set the stage for the population growth we are now experiencing.

Deer populations are not increasing in all areas of New York, and in fact, DEC is intentionally managing for reduced populations in some areas and stabilization in others. Because deer are not evenly distributed across the landscape of New York, different management strategies are needed depending upon the individual area and the status of its deer population.The goal of DEC's deer management program is to maintain deer numbers at levels that meet local interests and habitat conditions, while also providing quality hunting opportunities for New York's deer hunters.

The map "2006 Buck Take vs. Buck Take Objective" shows WMUs that are above, below, or near objective. The Buck Take Objective (BTO) for a WMU is the desired number of antlered bucks expected to be harvested per square mile when the unit's deer population is at the desired level as determined by the Citizen Task Force. The annual buck harvest per square mile is used each year to gauge population size and relationship to the desired population level. WMUs where population productivity, hunter access, or both limit the ability to manage deer numbers through hunting may not have a formally established objective.

Many of the units (shown in red on the map) in northwestern New York and within the band across central New York have been above objective for several years. DEC will continue to seek high levels of antlerless harvest in these areas to further reduce local deer populations. In areas shown in green on the map, deer populations are being managed for stability, intending to maintain deer numbers near objective levels. The remaining 55% of the WMUs shown in yellow on the map were below objective following the 2006 hunting season. However, many of the units below objective have seen substantial deer population growth in the past year or two and are on their way to achieving objective levels over the next few years.

As the deer population grows toward objective levels in much of the state, it is important that antlerless harvest keeps pace. Under the right circumstances, we can go from concerns about too few deer in some areas to the possibility of too many again in the span of only a few years, particularly in the good habitat areas of the state. Deer numbers can rebound much quicker than degraded habitat can be restored. To return to herd sizes similar to the late 1990s and early 2000s with habitat insufficient to support them would be setting the stage for another dramatic decline in deer population during the next severe winter. To avoid this population roller coaster, DMP allocations must increase as the population grows, allowing for greater levels of antlerless harvest to moderate population growth and keep deer numbers from once again rising above population objectives.

DMP allocations for 2007 have increased about 40% statewide, and in general, most WMUs will have more DMPs available than in 2006. The total target DMP allocation for 2007 is approximately 466,000 DMPs, excluding Long Island and the Bowhunting-Only units (WMUs 3S, 4J and 8C) which do not have DMP targets. While this is a substantial increase from the 2006 target of 333,000 DMPs, it represents only about 65% of DMP targets of the early 2000s when deer numbers were at their highest in New York. DMPs will be cut back in a few units where greater survival of antlerless deer is needed, but outside of the Adirondack Region, only WMUs 3A, 4X, 4L, 4M, and 4U will be closed for DMPs in 2007.

The pilot antler restriction program in WMUs 3C, 3H, 3J and 3K will continue in 2007. The antler restriction stipulates that bucks taken in the pilot WMUs have at least one antler with three points at least one inch in length to be legal. This standard is intended to reduce harvest of yearling bucks (1.5 years old), allowing them to survive to older ages. The pilot program has demonstrated some success in shifting the buck harvest toward slightly older bucks. Although buck take dropped initially in these units, buck take is expected to increase slightly this year.

Remember, Hunger Has A Cure... The Venison Donation Program is a great way to help those less fortunate while also assisting with deer management in New York. With 122 cooperating venison processors in 50 counties, over 80,000 pounds of quality venison were donated in 2006. Thank you sportsmen and women for providing over 2 million meals in seven years! Donate a dollar or more anywhere licenses are sold - just tell the clerk you want to support Venison Donation. For more information on the Venison Donation Program, pick up a brochure when you purchase your license or check out the Venison Donation Program website.

To help hunters choose their hunting locations, each Regional Deer biologist has prepared a summary for their respective WMUs. Click on the appropriate Region and you will be able to view a unit-by-unit forecast for the upcoming season.

A wealth of additional information is also available for deer hunters on our deer page.

Good luck hunting this fall and enjoy your time afield in the Empire State.