Hudson Valley Climate Change Conference, December 4, 2006

Hudson Valley Climate Change Conference Draws More than 350 Participants

"The scientific understanding of climate change is now sufficiently clear to justify nations taking prompt action."

Joint National Academies of Science Statement
June 2005

Flooding in the Town of New Paltz

On December 4, 2006 the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC) through its Climate Change Policy Office and Hudson River Estuary Program, held a one-day conference for local decision-makers to discuss climate change issues and their potential impacts on the Hudson River Valley. The conference was a great success, attracting nearly 350 elected officials, planning board members, city managers, municipal engineers, and community leaders.

The conference was held to help participants understand the latest scientific findings on climate change and provide information to aid them in planning for and managing these impacts in their communities. The morning program covered the science of climate change and the predicted impacts in the Hudson Valley. The afternoon presentations highlighted actions by communities and resources available to help communities address climate change.

Hudson Valley Climate Change Conference Program

Program Brochure (PDF, 1.6 MB): With Complete Speaker Biographies and Abstracts

9:00 - 9:15 Welcome

Slide Presentation (PDF, 98 KB)

Franz T. Litz, Climate Change Policy Coordinator
NYS Department of Environmental Conservation Climate Change Policy Office, 625 Broadway, 14th Floor, Albany, NY 12233-1010, (518)402-8547, ftlitz@gw.dec.state.ny.us

Morning Session: Climate Change Impacts in the Hudson Valley

9:15 - 9:30 Introduction

Frances Dunwell, Hudson River Estuary Coordinator
NYS Department of Environmental Conservation, Hudson River Estuary Program, 21 South Putt Corners Road, New Paltz, NY 12561-1696, (845) 256-3016, ffdunwel@gw.dec.state.ny.us

9:30 - 10:30 What is Climate Change and How is it Affecting the Northeast?

Summary: Art DeGaetano and Cameron Wake, climate scientists who contributed to the recently released Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment (NECIA), led off by describing the primary causes of global warming: carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping emissions from the burning of fossil fuels (by cars and electricity use). They explained that although heat-trapping emissions result from both human and natural causes, there is scientific consensus that most of the warming in the last 50 years is due to human actions. They emphasized that the magnitude of the change we will see over the next century will depend on the amount of fossil fuel emissions we generate in the coming decades.

What is Climate Change?
Slide Presentation (PDF, 1.6 MB)

Art DeGaetano, Director and Associate Professor
Northeast Climate Data Center, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, 1119 Bradfield Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853 (607) 255-0385, atd2@cornell.edu

Abstract:
The sun's energy, by far the main source of heat for earth, does not heat the earth's atmosphere directly, but rather its energy passes through the atmosphere and heats the surface of Earth. The surface then heats the atmosphere from below. If the Earth did not lose heat to space, it would continue to grow warmer as energy is supplied from the sun. The Earth maintains a fairly constant temperature because it loses almost as much heat as it gains to space. Clouds along with carbon dioxide in the atmosphere prevent some of this heat from escaping and thus warm the Earth. Without these components in the atmosphere the temperature of the globe would be about 60°F colder than it is today.

Over the last century the concentration of greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere has increased markedly. CO₂ levels in the atmosphere have not been this high for hundreds of thousands of years. In isolation, this change must result in a warming of the Earth's temperature. Over this same time period climate observations indicate that the global temperature has increased by about 1°F. Although changes in average precipitation have been small (on the order of 1-2%), rain gauge records show that the character of precipitation events has changed. Heavy rainfall events have become more frequent over the last half century.

It is unlikely that the emission of carbon dioxide into the Earth's atmosphere will slow in the near future. In fact, most projections indicate increased carbon dioxide emissions into the middle to late part of the 21st century. This continued increase will likely lead to additional increases in temperature, with most models projecting rises of between 1.5 and 5°C. Although the exact magnitude of changes in precipitation are uncertain, there is reason to believe that precipitation events will become more variable leading to increases in both the frequency of floods and droughts.

Climate Change in the Northeast: Past, Present, and Future
Slide Presentation (PDF, 1.7MB)

Cameron P. Wake, Research Associate Professor
Climate Change Research Center Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space (EOS), Morse Hall, University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH 03824, (603) 862-2329, Fax: 603-862-2124, cameron.wake@unh.edu

Abstract:
Climate changes. It always has and always will. What is unique today is that humans activities are also causing our climate to change.

We have investigated a number of indicators of climate change across the northeast United States, including annual and seasonal temperatures, extreme precipitation events, snowfall, snow-on-ground days, river flow, growing season, lake ice out dates, lilac bloom dates, sea surface temperatures, and sea level rise. All of these indicators show that the region has warmed over the last century, and that the rate of warming has increased over the last 30 years.

We have also investigated future climate change in New England under two different greenhouse gas emission scenarios: one where we rely primarily on fossil fuels to generate our energy and a second where we develop a variety of renewable energy. The higher emissions scenario results in significant climate change in the northeast by 2100, including warmer temperatures (6.5 - 12.5^o F), many more heat waves, more frequent drought, significant reduction in snow-on-ground days and regional snow cover, more extreme precipitation events, and sea level rise. Conversely, the lower emissions scenario results in significantly less climate change. The future climate of the Northeast therefore depends fundamentally on the decisions we make now and in the near future regarding how we produce and use energy.

10:45 - 12:30 Panel Presentation: What are the Likely Impacts of Climate Change in the Hudson Valley?

Moderator:
David VanLuven, Hudson River Estuary Landscape Director
The Nature Conservancy - Eastern New York Chapter, 195 New Karner Road, Suite 201, Albany, NY 12205, (518) 690-7878, dvanluven@tnc.org

Summary:
A panel of Hudson Valley scientists named below presented the next section of the program. They discussed the impacts of predicted local changes in climate including:

Increasing average annual temperatures
Decreasing snow cover
Increasing number and extent of short term droughts
Increasing number of extreme precipitation events (e.g. heavy rainfall in a short period of time)
Rising water levels in the Hudson River due to sea level rise

Doug Burns from the United State Geological Survey and Gary Kleppel from the University at Albany outlined how changes in Hudson Valley landscape, such as the increase in "impervious" or paved surfaces and the loss of forests and wetlands have reduced the ability of the land to absorb and store water during large rainfall events. They encouraged planners to conserve wetlands, which act as sponges during heavy rainfall events, and to consider alternatives to impervious surfaces to help prevent more localized flooding in the future. They stressed that we must begin to prepare now for the impacts of both extreme rain events and short term droughts on our drinking water supply in the coming years.

David Wolfe, a plant ecologist from Cornell University who also contributed to the Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment report, discussed impacts on local agriculture. According to Wolfe, some weed species and insect pests will benefit from rising carbon dioxide levels and this may increase the use of pesticides and herbicides in the future. He also covered expected changes in the local agricultural economy - Hudson Valley wine grapes may grow better than apples as the climate changes and dairy cows may suffer more from heat stress.

Klaus Jacob, from Columbia University, and Betsy Blair, from the Hudson River National Estuarine Research Reserve described the expected impacts of sea level rise in the Hudson. The predicted sea level rise of between 4 and 33 inches in the Northeast by the end of the century, coupled with increases in extreme weather events, pose a threat to low lying transportation and sewage treatment plant infrastructure. They stressed that Hudson River wetlands, spawning areas for fish like striped bass, and treasured recreational boating and fishing areas along the shoreline will be at risk if we don't begin to plan now for rising water.

Impacts on Hudson Valley Water Supplies
Slide Presentation (PDF, 290 KB)

Douglas A. Burns, Hydrologist
Watersheds Research Section, U.S. Geological Survey, 425 Jordan Rd. Troy, New York 12180- 8349, (518) 285-5662, daburns@usgs.gov

Abstract: Trends in air temperature, precipitation, and runoff were examined from 1952 to 2005 for the Catskill Mountain region of New York, an area that encompasses part of the mid-Hudson River Valley. Climate change is important in the Catskills because New York City and several smaller cities and towns rely on the region for water supply. Air temperature has warmed in the region by 1.1° F since the 1950s accompanied by an increase in average precipitation of 5.5 inches. Most of the increase in precipitation has occurred during June through October. Stream runoff has increased by only about half as much as that of precipitation, partly due to increased evaporation and transpiration resulting from warmer air temperatures. Additionally, peak spring snowmelt has moved from early April in the 1950s to late March in the early 21st century. These trends in runoff suggest that water supply reservoirs in the region are filling to a greater extent in the summer and fall such that less unfilled capacity exists to hold runoff from spring snowmelt and rainfall. These changes in runoff patterns can potentially contribute to flooding downstream as was observed in April 2005 on the Esopus Creek and Neversink River. Human land use and development patterns also contribute to climate sensitivity in the Hudson Valley. For example, impermeable surfaces move rainfall rapidly to local streams, increasing stormflow peaks in suburban areas such as Westchester and Putnam Counties. Also, in Rockland County, a doubling of population since the 1960s accompanied by increases in water demand have increased the severity of moderate short-term drought during the past 40 years. An abundance of scientific evidence indicates that the Hudson Valley can expect a warmer and wetter climate in the 21st century, but that droughts will occasionally occur, and will be intensified in a warmer climate, especially in more developed parts of the region. These patterns of changing climate suggest the need for new research to determine whether assumptions used in water resources planning based on static conditions are still valid in a climate predicted to rapidly change in the next few decades.

Impacts on Landscape and Land Use
Slide Presentation (PDF, 1.2 MB)

Gary Kleppel, Professor of Biological Sciences
Biodiversity, Conservation & Policy Program, Department of Biological Sciences, State University at Albany, NY 12222, (518) 442-4338, gkleppel@albany.edu

Abstract: The impacts of changing climate during the next several decades will be intimately linked to land use patterns. Increased severity and greater periodicity of storm events will likely to challenge the water storage capacity of the landscape. As land, particularly forested land, is cleared and hardened for development, terrestrial water-storage capacity will decline. In urbanized watersheds, both flood potential and water-loss will likely increase. Predicted, climate-induced sea level rise could impact coastal areas within the tidal portion of the Hudson River. Effects will be proportional to the extent of development and the ratio of permeable to impervious surfaces within the flood plain. Planning for local and regional responses to climate change should be begin immediately and must address storm water management and water storage issues at the landscape scale. Reductions in the spatial dimensions of urban development within watersheds should be accompanied by protection of forests and other permeable landscapes. Wetlands and other natural flood-mitigation and water retention systems should also be protected. Flood plains will be better suited for use as parks and greenways than for residential or commercial development.

Impacts on Agriculture and Invasive Species
Slide Presentation (PDF, 1.3 MB)

David Wolfe, Professor of Plant Ecology
68 Plant Science Building, Department of Horticulture, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853, (607) 255-7888, dww5@cornell.edu

Abstract:
We know that the climate in the Northeast is changing, not only based on what the thermometers are telling us, but also based on observations of plants and other living things responding to the change (e.g., earlier bloom dates).

Climate change may bring new opportunities (e.g. new crop options), but also will pose new risks and challenges for farmers and land managers. Specifically:

invasive insect, disease and weed pests are likely to benefit most from climate change, leading to increased pesticide and herbicide use;
reductions in biodiversity are likely, because climate change will tend to favor aggressive invasives at the expense of endangered species that are poor at migrating and adapting to change;
the fabric of our forests will be forever changed, with maple, beech, birch gradually replaced by oak, hickory, pine;
several agriculture sectors that currently dominate the rural economy will be at risk, most notably the fragile dairy industry (dairy cow milk production is highly sensitive to heat stress).

A variety of ways in which farmers and land managers can adapt to climate change, and the costs and risks of various adaptation strategies will also be briefly discussed.

Impacts on Sewage Treatment Facilities and Transportation Infrastructure
Slide Presentation (PDF, 1.3 MB)

Klaus Jacob, Senior Research Scientist
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Seismology Building Rm 225, 61 Route 9W, P.O. Box 1000, Palisades, NY 10964-8000, (845) 365-8440, jacob@ldeo.columbia.edu

Abstract:
Climate Change in the form of higher mean and extreme values of temperature and precipitation will make additional demands on the design, operation and maintenance of lifeline infrastructure systems. Such systems include transportation and sewage collection and wastewater treatment facilities. More frequent extreme storms, often associated with coastal and estuarine storm surges, especially when coinciding with high tide, can lead to interruption of operations, damage, and -in extreme cases- complete loss of facilities at vulnerable sites. Sea level rise in the Hudson River estuary of at least 2 to 3 feet during the 21st century will increase the frequency of such disruptive flooding events by factors of 3 to 10 in areas with tidal coast- or river-shorelines.

Adaptation measures include such options as lateral retreat to higher ground, in-place raising of structures and operations to higher elevations and, where necessary, regrading of gravity driven flow lines; or in some unavoidable instances "hardening" of structures by embankments, levees, sea walls and flood gates. These latter "hard" options are often effective only temporarily, and the former "soft" solutions are eventually unavoidable and ultimately more successful in many situations. Typical infrastructure systems have expected life times of at least a few decades to a century, the same time spans over which the climate changes become effective and need to be faced. Since these systems are capital intensive, early long-term planning, and climate-change-sensitive design and construction practices are essential to avoid excessive future retrofit costs and losses from destruction or loss of functionality with often severe economic consequences for the affected communities that own the vulnerable facilities. Insurance, if available at all for these facilities, will become ever more expensive and then disappear. Federal disaster relief aid will become ever more tight. Therefore, 'A penny of foresight is worth a buck of avoided future losses' (the actual benefit/ cost ratios for mitigation investments are on average closer to 4 to 1). In the recent past, when slower rates of climate change prevailed, foresight and mitigation have already proven to be cost effective. This proven cost effectiveness of risk mitigating investments will progressively improve further with time as the pace of predicted climate change increases.

Impacts on Hudson River Shoreline and Tidal Wetlands
Slide Presentation (PDF, 1.4 MB)

Betsy Blair, Director
Hudson River National Estuarine Research Reserve, Bard College Field Station, Annandale, NY 12504, (845) 758-7011, bablair@gw.dec.state.ny.us

Abstract: The Hudson River Estuary's wetlands, aquatic vegetation, and natural shoreline help mitigate flooding, clean our water, and provide habitat for fish and other species, and recreational opportunities. Climate change is expected to cause a rise in sea levels and an increase in extreme weather that will threaten these aquatic resources and the services they provide. Climate change will likely increase habitat and shoreline inundation and displacement, enable the advancement of saline waters farther up the estuary, and increase coastal erosion and our vulnerability to storm damage and flooding. Although tidal wetlands are gaining elevation slowly as they accumulate sediment, it appears unlikely that Hudson River wetlands will be able to keep up, and their survival will depend on their ability to migrate shoreward. Bulk-heading and development along the shoreline has and will exacerbate the risk to communities and resources. Hudson River shoreline communities will need to plan wisely to insure that we don't lose the services these natural areas provide and a safe future for their residents.

12:30 - 1:30 Lunch Keynote -- Carbon Down; Profits Up

Summary: Chris Walker, from the Climate Group, presented the impacts of climate change on the business and insurance industry and the economics behind the insurance industry's leadership on the climate change issue. Chris described the financial risk to the insurance industry and how it is driving business leaders to set goals to improve their own energy efficiency and invest in renewable energy technology.

Slide Presentation (PDF, 1.4 MB)

Chris Walker, United States Director
The Climate Group, c/o 245 5th Avenue, Suite 2401, New York, NY 10016-8728

Abstract: Chris' presentation gives us a glimpse of the business case for reducing carbon emissions.

Afternoon Session: Meeting the Challenge of Climate Change

The afternoon speakers focused primarily on examples of how local governments are already starting to address climate change.

1:30 - 1:45 Introduction

Slide Presentation (PDF, 44 KB)

Franz Litz, Climate Change Policy Coordinator
NYS Department of Environmental Conservation Climate Change Policy Office, 625 Broadway, 14th Floor, Albany, NY 12233-1010, (518)402-8547, ftlitz@gw.dec.state.ny.us

1:45 - 2:15 What is New York City's Plan to Address Climate Change?

Summary: Ariella Rosenberg from the New York City Mayor's Office outlined the Mayor's new Sustainability Initiative. Ariella described how previous efforts in water conservation and energy efficiency, including the replacement of all stoplights with light emitting diode (LED) technology, have made New York City one of the most sustainable large cities in America. New York's new Interagency Sustainability Task Force will help the City integrate ambitious but achievable sustainability goals and practices, such as green building standards and green procurement policies, into a long term planning strategy making New York City a national model for sustainability.

Long-Term Sustainability Planning
Slide Presentation (PDF, 93 KB)

Ariella Rosenberg, Office of Long-Term Planning and Sustainability
Mayor's Office of Operations, 253 Broadway, 10FL, New York, NY 10007, (212) 788-1416, arosenberg@cityhall.nyc.gov

Abstract: Developing a sustainability agenda for a city of any size requires gathering facts, building consensus, and demonstrating leadership. The director of New York City's new Office of Long-term Planning and Sustainability will describe the approach New York City is taking towards the development of a sustainability and climate change agenda, as well as early insights from the process.

2:15 - 3:30 Panel Presentation: How are Communities Preparing for Climate Change?

Moderator:
Franz T. Litz, Climate Change Policy Coordinator
NYS Department of Environmental Conservation Climate Change Policy Office, 625 Broadway, 14th Floor, Albany, NY 12233-1010, (518)402-8547, ftlitz@gw.dec.state.ny.us

Summary:
Robert Funicello from Westchester County described the County's new Climate Change Task Force. The Task Force which includes representatives from business, local government, and academia, will produce a countywide action plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and promote sustainable development in Westchester. One of the first steps will be to inventory greenhouse gas emissions produced annually in the County.

Nikki Coddington outlined how the Town of Greenburgh is planning to inventory the greenhouse gas emissions produced annually in the town and highlighted new projects to reduce fossil fuel use including: a new residential green building code, replacing old lighting with new energy efficient fluorescent lighting and occupancy sensors (saving $26,000 annually), and the installation of solar panels on the town hall.

Sidney Gale described the emerging threat of sea level rise to the coastal town of Guilford, Connecticut and the urgent need to reshape local planning processes to incorporate the impacts of a changing climate. Sidney emphasized the importance of collecting sound data on changing local conditions, such as areas impacted by local flooding events, communicating this change through all levels of government, and using it to inform long term local and regional planning strategies.

Climate Protection: Westchester County Global Warming Task Force
Presentation (PDF, 22 KB)

Robert Funicello, Director of Environmental Projects
County of Westchester, 148 Martine Avenue, White Plains, NY 10601, (914) 813-5457, rff3@westchestergov.com

Abstract: Westchester County has formed a task force with a diverse range of community stakeholders to produce a countywide action plan to reduce greenhouse has emissions and promote sustainable development in Westchester. In his talk, Mr. Funicello will cover the main goals of the Task Force including producing an up to date inventory of the greenhouse gas emissions produced in Westchester County and setting new goals to reduce emissions over the next decade. He will also discuss some of the ways that Westchester County has already taken action to reduce greenhouse has emissions and advance sustainability in the County.

Climate Change Action: Town of Greenburgh
Slide Presentation (PDF, 750 KB)

Nikki Coddington, Energy Conservation Coordinator
Greenburgh Town Hall, 177 Hillside Ave., Greenburgh, NY 10607

Abstract: Ms. Coddington's presentation will review measures the Town of Greeenburgh has taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by promoting energy conservation/efficiency and renewable energy in the community and in its government operations. Highlights include the Town's groundbreaking 2002 legislation mandating energy efficiency in new residential construction. Ms. Coddington will share lessons learned, challenges, and plans for next steps.

Accelerating Climatic Evolution: Thinking Locally, Acting Locally
Full Slide Presentation (PDF, 2.2 MB) -OR- First Half of Slide Presentation (PDF, 950 KB), Second Half of Slide Presentation (PDF, 1.3 MB)

Sidney Gale, President
250 Flag Marsh Rd, Guilford, CT 06437, (203)453-6100

Abstract: Mr. Gale will discuss the efforts of the Town of Guilford, Connecticut over the past two years to understand and plan for the impacts of climate change. Using abnormal seasonal high tides as proxies of sea level rise, he will present lessons learned about possible impacts and suggest first steps to be taken by state and local governments in commencing coordinated efforts to plan and manage the impacts of climatic evolution.

3:30 - 3:50 How Can Hudson Valley Communities Get Ahead of the Curve?

Summary: Kim Lundgren outlined how ICLEI- Local Governments for Sustainability's Cities for Climate Protection (CCP) Campaign works with local government to help them reduce their fossil fuel use through a 5 step process and network with other local governments to share ideas. Two hundred and fifteen cities participate in the network in the U.S., including Westchester County and the Town of Greenburgh (see above), and over 770 cities participate worldwide. A 2005 ICLEI study of 160 CCP participants found that the combined efforts of CCP communities remove 23 million tons of greenhouse gas annually saving $535 million in energy and fuel costs.

Kim Lundgren, Director
Northeast Regional Capacity Center, ICLEI- Local Governments for Sustainability, USA, Boston City Hall, Room 805, One City Hall Plaza, Boston, MA 02201, (617) 635-3853, kim.lundgren@iclei.org

Abstract: Ms. Lundgren's presentation will highlight the role that ICLEI-Local Governments for Sustainability plays in local climate protection initiatives. As the international association of local governments committed to sustainable development, ICLEI has a vast network of municipal expertise on successful measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and the costs associated with burning fossil fuels. Ms. Lundgren's presentation will provide a description of the benefits and tools ICLEI provides its members as well as some specific "best practice" examples from around the Northeastern portion of the United States.

3:50 - 4:15 How Can We Develop a Climate Change Strategy for the Hudson Valley?

Summary:
A discussion session tied the day together and allowed participants to share their ideas. Audience input included:

Hold follow-up workshops focused on climate impacts by resource group to allow experts to share ideas for solutions to climate change challenges
Ensure that public funding for capital building projects include energy efficiency criteria
Develop a curriculum on climate change for educators
Develop a professional speaker's bureau on climate change to reach out to municipal officials, chambers of commerce, and emergency management planning teams
Incorporate climate change impact planning into the State Environmental Quality Review Act (SEQRA)

Attendees expressed a desire to continue the conversation on this issue. The DEC Climate Change Policy Office and the Hudson River Estuary Program plan to continue the dialogue and have developed a Climate Change Advisory Group for the Hudson Valley to help plan next steps.

Discussion: How Can We Develop a Climate Change Strategy for the Hudson Valley?

Discussion Notes (PDF, 30 KB), Slide Presentation (PDF, 200 KB)

Lois A. New, Chief, Partnerships Section, Division of Water
New York State Department of Environmental Conservation, 625 Broadway, 4th Floor, Albany, NY 12233-3502, (518) 402-8239, lanew@gw.dec.state.ny.us

4:15 - 4:30 Conference Synthesis and Wrap-Up

Summary of key points raised at the conference.

Slide Presentation (PDF, 62KB)