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Table of Contents

1.0 Executive Summary

2.0 Acronyms and Abbreviations

3.0 Background and Overview of Federal Requirements

3.1 Introduction
3.2 Particulate Formation

3.2.1 General
3.2.2 Sources of Particulate Matter

3.2.2.1 Direct (Primary) PM2.5
3.2.2.2 Indirect (Secondary) PM2.5

3.3 Health and Welfare Effects

3.3.1 General

3.3.1.1 Health Effects

3.4 Environmental Effects

3.4.1 Environmental Damage
3.4.2 Aesthetic Damage
3.4.3 Visibility Reduction

3.5 Annual and 24-Hour NAAQSs

3.6 Nonattainment Designation

3.7 SIP Due Date

3.8 Attainment Date

3.9 2006 24-Hour PM2.5 Standard Revision

4.0 Emission Inventory

4.1 Introduction
4.2 Summary of 2002 Statewide and NY/NJ/LI/CT Annual Emissions

4.2.1 Point Source Inventory Methodology
4.2.2 Area Source Inventory Methodology
4.2.3 On-Road Inventory Methodology
4.2.4 Non-Road Inventory Methodology
4.2.5 Biogenic Inventory Methodology
4.2.6 Onroad Mobile Source Emissions and Re-entrained Road Dust

4.3 Summary of Future Year Emissions

4.3.1 Projection Methodologies for Point, EGU, and Area Sources
4.3.2 On-Road Projection Methodology
4.3.3 Non-Road Projection Methodology
4.3.4 Biogenic Future Year Emissions

5.0 Air Quality Trends, Baselines and Projections for the New York Nonattainment Area (New York Metropolitan Area, Connecticut and Northern New Jersey)

5.1 Air Quality Trends - New York

5.1.1 FRM Data
5.1.2 STN Data
5.1.3 Trend Summary - New York

5.2 Air Quality Trends - Connecticut and New Jersey

5.2.1 Connecticut
5.2.2 New Jersey
5.2.3 Analysis
5.2.4 Trend Summary - Connecticut and New Jersey

5.3 Baseline and Future PM2.5 Design Values

5.3.1 Current PM2.5 Design Values

5.3.1.1 Baseline Species Concentrations
5.3.1.2 Relative Response Factors

5.3.2 Future PM2.5 Design Values

5.4 Weight of Evidence (WOE) in Support of Modeled Attainment of the PM2.5 NAAQS in the New York City Nonattainment Area

5.4.1 Monitoring Network in New York County and Surroundings
5.4.2 Other Data Analysis
5.4.3 Summary
5.4.4 Additional Information

5.5 Weight of Evidence:Additional Measures Not Accounted for in Modeling Projections

5.5.1 Part 222, Distributed Generation
5.5.2 NOx RACT: High Electricity Demand Day Units
5.5.3 Clean Air Interstate Rule
5.5.4 Diesel Emissions Reduction Act of 2006
5.5.5 Existing State VOC Reduction Measures

5.5.5.1 Part 205: Architectural and Industrial Maintenance (AIM) Coatings
5.5.5.2 Part 208: Landfill Gas Collection & Control Systems for Certain Municipal Solid Waste Landfills
5.5.5.3 Part 226: Solvent Metal Cleaning
5.5.5.4 Part 228: Surface Coating Processes
5.5.5.5 Part 229: Petroleum and Volatile Organic Liquid Storage and Transfer
5.5.5.6 Part 230: Gasoline Dispensing Sites and Transport Vehicles
5.5.5.7 Part 233: Pharmaceutical and Cosmetic Manufacturing Processes

5.5.6 New or Revised State VOC Reduction Measures

5.5.6.1 Part 228: Surface Coating Processes and Part 235: Consumer Products
5.5.6.2 Part 234: Graphic Arts
5.5.6.3 Part 235: Consumer Products
5.5.6.4 Part 239: Portable Fuel Containers
5.5.6.5 Part 241: Asphalt Formulation
5.5.6.6 Rulemaking Schedule

5.5.7 Federal VOC Measures

5.5.7.1 VOC MACT
5.5.7.2 Federal Reformulated Gasoline

5.5.8 Federal Rules

5.5.8.1 Federal Nonroad Spark-Ignition Engines and Equipment

5.5.9 Canadian Emission Reductions
5.5.10 New York State's "15 by 15" Initiative
5.5.11 NYSERDA Programs

6.0 Control Measures

6.1 Reasonably Available Control Technology (RACT)
6.2 Reasonably Available Control Measures (RACM)
6.3 Particulate Matter

6.3.1Existing State Particulate Matter Measures

6.3.1.1 Part 215: Open Burning

6.3.2 Existing Federal Particulate Matter Measures

6.3.2.1 Locomotive Engines and Marine Compression-Ignition Engines Final Rule

6.3.3 New or Revised State Particulate Matter Measures

6.3.3.1 Part 227: Stationary Combustion Installations

6.4 Sulfur

6.4.1 Existing State Sulfur Measures

6.4.1.1 Part 225: Fuel Consumption and Use

6.4.2 Existing Federal Sulfur Measures

6.4.2.1 Clean Air Act Title IV - Acid Rain Program
6.4.2.2 Low Sulfur Fuels

6.5 Nitrogen Oxides

6.5.1 Existing State NOx Measures

6.5.1.1 Part 210: Emissions and Labeling Requirements forPersonal Watercraft Engines
6.5.1.2 Part 217: Motor Vehicle Emissions
6.5.1.3 Part 218: Emission Standards for Motor Vehicles and MotorVehicle Engines

6.5.2 New or Revised State NOx Measures

6.5.2.1 Part 212: General Process Emission Sources
6.5.2.2 Subpart 220-1: Portland Cement Plants
6.5.2.3 Subpart 220-2: Glass Manufacturing
6.5.2.4 Part 227: Stationary Combustion Installations
6.5.2.5 Part 231: New Source Review in Nonattainment Areas andOzone Transport Region

6.5.3 Existing Federal NOx Measures

6.5.3.1 Large Industrial Spark-Ignition Engines Over 19kW and Recreational Vehicles
6.5.3.2 Federal Diesel Fuel
6.5.3.3 Small Spark-Ignition Engines
6.5.3.4 Nonroad Diesel Engines
6.5.3.5 NOx MACT

6.6 VOC and Ammonia
6.7 Rulemaking Schedule

7.0 Contingency Measures

7.1 Background
7.2 Contingency Measures
7.3 Other Measures

8.0 Reasonable Further Progress

9.0 Conformity

9.1 Transportation Conformity
9.2 General Conformity
9.3 Conformity Budget

9.3.1 Motor Vehicle Emission Budgets (MVEBs)
9.3.2 PM2.5 Precursors
9.3.3 Road Dust and Construction Related Fugitive Dust
9.3.4 Budgets for Attainment of the Annual PM2.5 NAAQS

10.0 Other Programs

10.1 New Source Review and Prevention of Significant Deterioration
10.2 Permitting
10.3 Emission Statements

List of Tables

Table 4-1 Statewide Summary of Emissions
Table 4-2 New York Metropolitan Area Summary of Emissions
Table 4-3 NY/NJ/LI/CT nonattainment area 2009 Summary
Table 4-4 NY/NJ/LI/CT nonattainment area 2011

Table 5-1 VOC Rulemaking Schedule
Table 5-2 Listing of FRM sites, 1999-2006.
Table 5-3 Trends in PM2.5 mass at the longest running FRM monitors
Table 5-4 Listing of Speciation Trends Network (STN) sites, 2000-2006
Table 5-5 Listing of FRM sites, 1999-2006
Table 5-6 Annual average PM2.5 levels (ug/m3) for sites with at least 75 percent valid samples in a given year, 2000-2006
Table 5-7 The 98th percentile of PM2.5 levels (ug/m3) for sites with at least 75 percent valid samples in a given year, 2000-2006
Table 5-8 Trends in PM2.5 mass at the longest running FRM monitors, based on quarterly averages from 1999-2006
Table 5-9 Third quarter 2002 average PM2.5 values at the NY and NJ FRM monitors in the NYC NAA
Table 5-10 Baseline PM2.5 design values at all FRM monitors across the NYC NAA as computed by MATS using the official EPA database (which includes flagged data from July 2002 in NY and NJ), and excluding the flagged data from July 2002 in NY and NJ
Table 5-11 Baseline non-blank species composition at all FRM monitors across the NYC NAA as computed by MATS
Table 5-12 Baseline and future PM2.5 design values at all FRM monitors across the NYC NAA as computed by MATS, excluding flagged FRM days
Table 5-13 Information for the five FRM monitors considered in this analysis: site name and ID, dates of operation during 2000-2004, base year PM2.5 design value, and the nearest STN monitor
Table 5-14 Current PM2.5 species composition at each site
Table 5-15 Annual average PM2.5 mass over the nine grid cells surrounding each monitor from the base year (2002) and future year (2009) CMAQ simulations, as well as the absolute and percent reductions
Table 5-16 Base and future year PM2.5 design values

Table 6-1 Recreational Marine Diesel Emission Standards
Table 6-2 Nonroad Diesel Emission Standards
Table 6.3 Rulemaking Schedule
Table 7-1 Contingency Calculation
Table 9-1 Transportation Conformity Emission Budgets for PM2.5 Attainment

List of Figures

Figure 5-1Map of Downstate FRM Sites
Figure 5-2 Average PM2.5 Speciation - Annual, Winter, and Summer
Figure 5-3 PM2.5 FRM Sites in New York City

List of Appendices

Appendix A - Modeling Technical Support Documents
Appendix B - Area Source Methodology (PDF 102kb, 40pgs)
Appendix C - Future Year Electricity Generating Sector Emission Inventory Development (PDF 198kb, 44pgs)
Appendix D - Emission Inventory (PDF 33kb, 6pgs)
Appendix E - EPA Approval to Flag Canadian Fire Data
Appendix F - Sample Calculations (PDF 20kb, 6pgs)
Appendix G - Methods and Data Sources for Fugitive Dust Inventory for Paved and Unpaved Roads (PDF 538kb, 100pgs)


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