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4.0 Emission Inventories

4.1 Introduction

This chapter begins with a comparison of major source sectors for the statewide total with that of the New York State portion of the non attainment area variously known as NY/NJ/LI/CT or NYNJLI. This geographic portion is 10 downstate counties consisting of Bronx, Kings, Nassau, New York, Orange, Queens, Richmond, Rockland, Suffolk, and Westchester. Major source sectors enumerated here are divided into biogenic, non-road mobile sources (NRMS), on-road mobile sources (ORMS), area, non-EGU point, and EGU sources.

4.2 Summary of 2002 Statewide and NY/NJ/LI/CT Annual Emissions

The fundamental unit for the inventory of each major source sector and contaminant is an annual tons per year emissions level. The statewide totals are summarized in Table 5-1 for NOx, PM2.5 and SO2 emissions for the year 2002. Emissions are reported to the nearest ton.

Table 4-1 Statewide Summary of Emissions
Source
Sector
2002 Tons per year Percent Share of Each Sector
NOX PM2.5 SO2 NOX PM2.5 SO2
Biogenic 8,313 0.7%
NRMS
Total
119,808 9,000 13,288 10.6% 6.9% 1.6%
ORMS 313,888 5,402 10,229 27.9% 4.2% 1.2%
Area
Sources
98,804 85,841 113,978 8.8% 66.0% 13.8%
Road
Dust
0 4,773 0 0.0% 3.7% 0.00%
Point
Sources
584,450 25,075 686,426 51.9% 19.3% 83.3%
All Sectors
Total
1,125,263 130,091 823,921 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%

For the ten-county NY portion of the NY/NJ/LI/CT nonattainment area, the summary is tabulated below as Table 4-2.

Table 4-2 New York Metropolitan Area Summary of Emissions
Source
Sector
2002 Tons per year Percent Share of Each Sector
NOX PM2.5 SO2 NOX PM2.5 SO2
Biogenic 743 0.2%
NRMS
Total
58,076 4,165 8,083 13.5% 16.3% 7.0%
ORMS 134,300 2,428 3,085 31.2% 9.5% 2.7%
Area
Sources
56,564 15,555 38,637 13.2% 60.8% 33.4%
Road
Dust
0 658 0 0 2.6% 0
Point
Sources
180,156 2,793 65,929 41.9% 10.9% 57.0%
All Sectors
Total
429,839 25,599 115,734 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

For both the Statewide and NY/NJ/LI/CT annual inventories, the percent share of each sector for each of the contaminants is shown in the right-hand portion of the tables above. Further details of the NY/NJ/LI/CT annual inventories, not only for 2002, but also for 2009 and 2011, are presented as Appendix D of this plan.

4.2.1 Point Source Inventory Methodology

New York State has an integrated emissions, permitting, compliance, and fee billing computer system identified as New York's Air Facility System (AFS). The emissions module of AFS is a database which contains detailed facility and emissions information for all of the major (Title V) sources within New York State. This database is used to generate annual emission statement forms which are sent out to the State's major facilities each year. Emission statements survey the type and amount of fuel consumed (combustion sources), throughput rates (non-combustion processes), average hours of operation, percent operation by season, control descriptions/efficiencies, and estimates of actual emissions for each regulated contaminant. The 2002 emissions from point sources were obtained directly from Title V major sources via the required emission statement surveys. These data from the major sources were further subdivided into EGU and (other) point source sectors.

All of this data was submitted to MARAMA / MANE-VU for additional quality assurance (QA) and for MANE-VU's use in preparing the projection inventories for all point and area sources throughout New York State. MARAMA, the Mid-Atlantic Regional Air Management Association, Inc. is a voluntary, non-profit association of ten state and local air pollution control agencies. MARAMA is cooperating with the Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management (NESCAUM) and the Ozone Transport Commission (OTC) to provide staff support to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Visibility Union (MANE-VU). The inventory summary work described in this chapter was prepared by MANE-VU as a coordinated effort among the states to develop a consistent inventory throughout the region with the most efficient process. The MANE-VU methodology and results can be found in the document "Development of Emission Projections for 2009, 2012, and 2018 for NonEGU Point, Area, and Nonroad Sources in the MANE-VU Region," February 2007, located at:

www.marama.org/reports/
MANEVU_Emission_Projections_TSD_022807.pdf

For the purposes of this SIP preparation, the EGU data was treated differently than the "other" point source data. For future year growth, EPA and MARAMA used the IPM model to predict EGU emissions. The IPM results were used in the CMAQ model that is described elsewhere in this document. IPM is a useful model for predicting regional emissions, but for more specific areas like the NY/NJ/LI/CT nonattainment area, the predictions are less reliable. For the New York portion of the NY/NJ/LI/CT nonattainment area, these IPM results are not considered reliable and do not agree with the progression of EGU emissions even for the interim years between 2002 and present. The inventory prepared for this document uses actual 2006 EGU emission data projected into future years using the conservative assumption that there will be no emission reductions from any of the facilities unless reductions are required by a consent order, permit condition or court order.

4.2.2 Area Source Inventory Methodology

Area sources are defined and calculated in accordance with the descriptions and methodologies in the EPA Emissions Inventory Improvement Program (EIIP) Volume III - Area Source series, and the Air Toxic Emission Protocol for the Great Lakes States. Area sources collectively represent individual stationary sources that have not been inventoried as specific point sources. These individual sources treated collectively as area sources are typically too small, numerous, or difficult to inventory using the methods for the other classes of sources. Area sources represent a collection of emission points for a specific geographic area, most commonly at the county level; however, any geographic area can be used to present area sources. Facilities and emission points are grouped together with other like sources into area source categories. These area source categories are combined in such a way that emissions can be estimated for an entire category using one methodology. This methodology normally requires a step to exclude the emissions from sources that have already been accounted for as point sources. The area source categories must be defined in such a way to avoid overlap or duplication with point, mobile or biogenic emissions sources.

New York has applied the methodologies as identified in EIIP and/or the Air Toxic Emission Protocol for the Great Lakes States, including appropriate 2002 actual activity data to develop the 2002 periodic area source inventory. The area sources are broken down according to Area Source Codes (ASC). Details of area source methodologies are provided as Appendix B.

All of the area source data was submitted to MANE-VU for additional QA and for its use in preparing the projection inventories. The MANE-VU methodology and results can be found in the document "Development of Emission Projections for 2009, 2012, and 2018 for Non-EGU Point, Area, and Nonroad Sources in the MANE-VU Region," February 2007, located at:

www.marama.org/reports/
MANEVU_Emission_Projections_TSD_022807.pdf.

4.2.3 On-Road Inventory Methodology

The on-road component of the 2002 base year inventory includes an estimate of emissions from all motorized vehicles operated on public roadways. All on-road mobile emissions were estimated using EPA's MOBILE6.2 emission model and individual inputs for each of the 62 counties in the state. These inputs include varying temperature, traffic, and/or air quality programs. "Base-year" inventory inputs were derived from 2002 data, where applicable, and reflect the programs and controls that were in effect in 2002. In order to yield more accurate inventories the modeling was done using specific inputs for each month. Brief descriptions of these input types are provided below.

A new 2002 Daily Vehicle Miles Traveled (DVMT) inventory was constructed by the New York State Department of Transportation (NYSDOT) to provide DVMT estimates by county, geographic component (urban, small urban, and rural) and functional class. This resulting VMT by county and by functional class is then multiplied by a seasonal adjustment factor to account for seasonal differences. This seasonal adjustment factor is also supplied by the NYSDOT.

The vehicle mix for each of the 11 NYSDOT regions in New York State is used to produce VMT by vehicle type. There are 28 fuel and gross-weight-based categories of vehicles that are used by MOBILE6.2. The main objective is to create a separate, distinct (where justified) vehicle mix for each of the twelve roadway types in the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) classification scheme.

The registration distributions used in MOBILE6.2 are obtained through the analysis of current year New York State Department of Motor Vehicles (NYSDMV) registration data. This database is obtained annually at the beginning of each July and contains a complete listing of all vehicles registered in the State. Each record is sorted into the 28 vehicle types by county. The 2002 registration distribution was used for 2002 inventories. Diesel Fractions are obtained at the same time as the registration distributions.

Mileage Accumulation Rates for LDGV, LDDV, LDGT1, and LDGT2 were developed in conjunction with the NYSDOT. Default values were used for all other vehicle type mileage accumulation rates.

NYSDOT created vehicle use profiles similar to those used as inputs to California's EMFAC model. One of these inputs is the percent of vehicle trips in each hour; these values also equate to the number of starts per hour.

Hourly temperatures were obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration for New York State and vicinity. Each area of the State was then matched to a NWS station. The Department uses hourly values to more accurately model hourly emissions. Monthly average hourly temperatures were created from recorded hourly temperature data for all of 2002 for each of the weather stations used for ozone temperatures.

The relative humidity data for modeling of ozone exceedance days were calculated from hourly airport observations that the Department obtained from the National Climatic Data Center. Dewpoint observations for the same dates and locations that were used in temperature calculations were also used to determine hourly relative humidity values. The Department uses actual recorded hourly values to more accurately model hourly emissions. In modeling annual emissions an average daily absolute humidity value was calculated for each month of the year.

The Planning Division of NYSDOT developed speed estimates for air quality modeling in 1994. Speeds were developed for 15 areas, some as small as a single county, throughout the state along with each of the 12 possible functional classes and four time periods. When modeling these speeds in MOBILE6.2 the AVERAGE SPEED command was not used because it can only model a single speed for the entire day. The SPEED VMT command allows the modeling of different hourly speeds and was therefore chosen as the input format for New York State speeds.

The Fuel Program command was used to specify a reformulated gas (RFG) fuel program for the 10-county NYMA. All other counties were modeled for a conventional gasoline fuel program. The Stage II Refueling program began for the NYMA area in 1989. However, refueling emissions are not included as part of the mobile source inventory; rather, they are calculated separately and included in the area source component of the inventory.

The Anti-Tampering Program command is used to specify the programs in effect in New York State. Anti-Tampering programs throughout the State test all gasoline-powered vehicles annually. In 1999 a gas cap presence check was added statewide. The I/M Program command is used to specify the Inspection/Maintenance (I/M) programs in effect in New York State. When modeling 2002, this same program was still in effect but was now separated into heavy and light duty sections and joined by an IM240 program.

The LEV 2 phase-in schedules were created using a spreadsheet to solve for the NMOG standard for each model year using the various motor vehicle certification standards. The LEV program is based on each manufacturer's fleet of vehicles meeting an NMOG fleet average standard for each model year. This standard can be met using any combination of LEV certification standards the manufacturer chooses.

4.2.4 Non-Road Inventory Methodology

The non-road component of the 2002 base year inventory includes an estimate of emissions from motorized vehicles and equipment that are not typically operated on public roadways. Emissions estimates for non-road mobile sources were estimated using four separate methodologies. EPA's Non-Road Model is used for a number of non-road emission categories while airport, commercial marine vessel and locomotive emissions are calculated separately outside of the model. In addition, all 62 counties are modeled separately and the state is separated into two areas to account for the federally mandated RFG program in place in the 10-county NYMA.

Emissions from 2-stroke gasoline, 4-stroke gasoline, liquefied petroleum gas, compressed natural gas and diesel fueled non-road vehicles as well as emissions from recreational marine vessels were estimated using the U.S. EPA Non-Road Model Version 2005. The software was finalized for use in SIP development on June 12, 2006. Using the Non-Road Model, emissions from New York were estimated for each individual county for each month of the year. To account for temperature and fuels differences across the state, county-specific temperature and fuels blend data for each month of the year were input into the model.

For 2-stroke gasoline, 4-stroke gasoline, liquefied petroleum gas, compressed natural gas and diesel fueled nonroad vehicles as well as emissions from recreational marine vessels; the U.S. EPA Nonroad Model was run on a monthly county-by-county basis. To develop emissions for a typical ozone season day, the emissions for June - August were added together and then divided by 92.

The temperature data for 2002 was acquired from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration which included historical weather data from 33 airport locations across the State of New York as well as surrounding locations. This information was used to develop average high and low temperatures for each month of the year on a county by county basis.

Fuels blend data for 2002 was acquired from the New York State Department of Agriculture and Markets. This data is based on thousands of samples collected across the state from fueling stations and retention areas. These samples are analyzed for many profiles including oxygen content, RVP, and sulfur content. This analysis provides average monthly fuels profiles on a county-by-county basis for use in the model.

Aircraft emissions for New York State are estimated using the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) Emission Dispersion Modeling System (EDMS) Version 4.4. Airport specific landing and take-off data by aircraft type acquired from FAA are used as inputs to the model. EDMS uses this information to estimate emissions from both aircraft and ground service equipment.

Commercial Marine Vessel (CMV) emissions are based upon the CMV emissions report prepared by the Starcrest Consulting Group in conjunction with their work on the New York Harbor Deepening Project. The emissions from Bronx, Kings, Nassau1, New York, Queens, Richmond, Rockland, Suffolk and Westchester counties are based on actual 2002 operational data from an intensive survey performed by Starcrest. The CMV inventory for the remainder of the state reflects the emissions inventory that was developed by EPA during preparation of the 2002 NEI. The detailed CMV emissions inventory methodology can be found in the EPA document entitled "Documentation for Aircraft, Commercial Marine Vessel, Locomotive, and Other Components of the National Emissions Inventory - Volume I - Methodology". This document can be found at: ftp://ftp.epa.gov/EmisInventory/
2002finalnei/documentation/mobile/
2002nei_mobile_nonroad_methods.pdf

The Starcrest inventory includes a detailed survey of all CMV types, activity and fuel consumption and took several months to complete. This project was undertaken as part of the NYC Harbor Deepening Project to update the baseline inventory and to optimize the offsets that would be utilzed by the Army Corps of Engineers. This updated inventory was performed by Starcrest Consulting under contract to the Port Authority. While the Department would like to use the Starcrest methodology to update the CMV inventory for the rest of the state it would require an intensive effort to survey all of the counties bordering Lake Erie, Niagara River, Lake Ontario, the St. Lawrence Seaway, Lake Champlain, Hudson River, Mohawk River, Erie Canal and both the Long Island Sound and Atlantic Ocean since Suffolk County was not included in the Starcrest inventory. Other bodies of water that may have CMV traffic are the Finger Lakes, Oneida Lake, Lake George and possibly some other rivers.

The locomotive emissions inventory is based upon a report developed under contract to the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA). The report is entitled "NYSERDA CLEAN DIESEL TECHNOLOGY: NON-ROAD FIELD DEMONSTRATION PROGRAM; Development of the 2002 Locomotive Survey & Inventory for New York State." The locomotive inventory is based upon a survey conducted of the national, regional, and local freight railroads, as well as passenger and commuter rail lines operating in New York State. Information collected in the survey was used in development of the emissions inventory.

For aircraft, commercial marine and locomotives the 2002 annual base year inventories were first grown to annual projection year inventories by the method described above. For all three categories, there is no documentation that supports using any seasonal adjustment factors to develop daily emissions. Therefore, ozone season day emissions were calculated by dividing the annual emissions by 365.

4.2.5 Biogenic Inventory Methodology

Biogenic emissions were calculated using Biogenic Emissions Inventory System (BEIS) v3.1.2. Daily values were totaled for each county to yield annual numbers. Although added to the NOx totals, biogenic emissions are output as NO in the BEIS model. The BEIS model makes no estimates for PM2.5 and SO2 and so those columns are left blank.

4.2.6 Onroad Mobile Source Emissions and Re-entrained Road Dust

The Department urges the USEPA to move toward a more realistic approach to road dust. In the interim, the Department has included road dust estimates as part of this SIP submission. This inventory was developed as part of our SIP modeling inventory and the methodology is contained in Appendix G - Road Dust Estimation for Paved and Unpaved Roads. For the more rural counties, (Nassau, Orange, Suffolk and Westchester) speciated monitoring indicates that road dust emissions represents approximately 3.3% of the total mass. The Department has adjusted the calculated road dust emissions estimates for these counties to that they represent 3.3% of the total mass from the monitoring results. The Department also adjusted Bronx county to 5.0% to more closely represent speciated monitoring at an urban monitor (Canal Street). Speciated emissions results for the remaining 4 urban counties (Kings, New York, Queens and Richmond) more closely aligned with monitoring results so no adjustments were made to the calculated emissions results. The adjusted emissions are included as a footnote in the appropriate inventory tables. The Department is willing to collaborate with EPA to improve that sector of the inventory, and extend it to urban areas in the north east. The Department would be willing to enlist the assistance of others, as appropriate, to improve the road dust inventory.

The Department believes that the values estimated using EPA's preferred methodology are inaccurate for inclusion in the SIP2. For the purposes of this submission, the Department has included an adjusted road dust inventory.

The Department's first became concerned with the estimating procedures created by US EPA for purposes of estimating PM10 during the development of PM10 inventories in the early to mid 90's. The Department extended these concerns to PM2.5 in comments made in response to revisions to AP-42, Chapter 13, proposed in 20033. Shortly thereafter, in late 2003, the Department included concerns about re-entrained road dust and their proposed role in transportation conformity determinations4. In January of 2005, the Department submitted comments regarding EPA's supplemental proposal for particulate hot spot analysis which included a brief monograph on "NYS PM2.5 Road Dust Estimates for CY 2002"5. It was here that the Department first proposed that road dust be declared indeterminate, on the basis that the methodology only provides an order-of-magnitude estimate. In June 2006, EPA proposed adjustments to these methodologies, based on work suggesting that the PM2.5 to PM10 ratio was much smaller than in previous experiments run in the wind-swept, generally arid western states. The Department again submitted comments6 that questioned the aptness of the model. These comments, together with materials submitted to the record on the hot spot proposal (Jan. 2005)7, point out the large "disconnect" between the results of a speciated ambient monitoring data analysis and the results from an inventory assembled using EPA's methodology.

The speciated monitoring data shows that the fraction known as the "crustal fraction" can be subtotaled yielding 3-5 percent of the PM2.5 total mass on filters collected in the NY/NJ/LI nonattainment area. This crustal fraction is a measure of particulate from any geological origin, not just from road dust (i.e. sand and gravel operations and their transportation, residential, commercial or roadway construction and demolition including trackout, other forms of trackout, waste transfer processes, fugitive dusts from roadway accidents and spillage, etc.). This can be compared to an inventory exercise (using 2002 national emission inventory values) that yields road dust estimates for a highly traveled county like Suffolk of between 15 to 65 percent of the total, all source sector inventory for the County.

Original emissions (as contrasted to the re-entrained portions) are considered by the Department to minimally include brake wear, tire wear, and pavement wear. A case can be made that only pavement wear is road dust, but such estimates are indeterminate as well. Furthermore, for accounting purposes in this plan, tire wear (TW) and brake wear (BW) estimates are included as part of the onroad sector for fine PM, even though for purposes of reduction strategies they are considered irreducible8. They are included in the PM2.5 estimates made for the onroad mobile sources, together with exhaust gas PM (GASPM), organic (O_CARBON) and elemental (E_CARBON) carbon estimates.

Percent contribution of each subcategory of PM2.5

Therefore for purposes of conformity, tire and brake wear PM2.5 emissions are included in the conformity budget, presented in Chapter 10. The percent contribution (shown above) of each of these subcategories of PM2.5 is approximately the same whether it is for the 10 county NY/NJ/LI/CT non- attainment area or for a 62 county Statewide inventory.

To the extent that emissions inventory improvement is a necessary part of understanding and controlling fine particulate emissions, and to the extent that more realistic road dust models are necessary, the Department has been following the work of the Scandinavian countries, specifically Sweden. They, together with Finland, are studying the tire/road interface, unencumbered by windblown fugitives, and the confounding effects of exhaust particulates. Recent work by Kupiainen, K et. al. (2003, 2005)9 from Finland on sanding, and Gustafsson, M. et.al. (2003)10 and Dahl, A. et. al. (2006)11 in Sweden appears to suggest alternative approaches that warrant some attention by the EPA. The work by Dahl et. al. raises prospects that the tire wear model needs to be reviewed as well in the context of fine and ultrafine tire wear emissions.

4.3 Summary of Future Year Emissions

The future years of interest are 2009 and 2011. The inventory summaries for these two years are presented in Tables 4-3 and 4-4, respectively. Further by-county details for the ten nonattainment area counties for 2002, 2009, and 2011 are presented in Appendix D.

Table 4-3 NY/NJ/LI/CT Nonattainment Area 2009 Summary
Source
Sector
2009 Tons per year Percent of All Sector Total
NOX PM2.5 SO2 NOX PM2.5 SO2
Biogenic 743 0.2%
NRMS
Total
26,095 1,345 1,548 7.7% 5.8% 1.4%
ORMS 77,571 1,750 680 23.0% 7.5% 0.6%
Area
Sources
54,876 16,552 40,755 16.2% 71.3% 35.9%

Road
Dust

0 617 0 0.0% 2.7% 0.0%
Point
Sources
178,569 2,939 70,506 52.9% 12.7% 62.1%
All Sectors
Total
337,855 23,203 113,489 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Table 4-4 NY/NJ/LI/CT Nonattainment Area 2011 Summary
Source
Sector
2011 Tons per year Percent of All Sector Total
NOX PM2.5 SO2 NOX PM2.5 SO2
Biogenic 743 0.2%
NRMS
Total
26,131 1,366 895 7.9% 5.9% 0.8%
ORMS 65,339 1,580 702 19.8% 6.8% 0.6%
Area
Sources
55,349 16,720 40,777 16.8% 72.0% 35.9%
Road
Dust
0 619 0 0.0% 2.7% 0.0%
Point
Sources
182,296 2,924 71,114 55.3% 12.6% 62.7%
All Sectors
Total
329,857 23,209 113,488 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

4.3.1 Projection Methodologies for Point, EGU, and Area Sources

The 2002 non-EGU point and area source emissions inventories were projected using the growth factors in tables provided by MANE-VU. The emissions used for projections were interpolated for the years 2005, 2008, and 2011. The MANE-VU methodology and results can be found in the document "Development of Emission Projections for 2009, 2012, and 2018 for Non-EGU Point, Area, and Non-Road Sources in the MANE-VU Region," February 2007, located at:

www.marama.org/reports/
MANEVU_Emission_Projections_TSD_022807.pdf

For EGU point sources, EPA has recommended the use of the IPM model to project EGU emissions. MANE-VU followed this recommendation, so the MANE-VU projections for point sources used IPM to estimate EGU emissions. When the IPM modeled emissions were compared to the actual 2005 emissions for New York, or when IPM modeled emissions were compared to the permit applications that the Department has received for new EGUs, it became obvious that, for New York, the IPM projected emissions were not realistic (for example, in NYCMA, IPM projected more than a 70 percent reduction in NOx emissions from EGUs by 2009 with the generation - and associated emissions - moving further upstate). This re-siting of facilities by IPM and hence the movement of emissions does not accurately reflect the reality of the constraints of the electrical grid in New York State, nor does it reflect the realities of siting new power plants in New York. In order to present a more realistic projection of EGU emissions for New York, it is assumed that the 2005 actual EGU emissions will represent the EGU emissions for the future years. 2005 is the most recent data available. The trend in recent years for EGUs has been decreasing emissions statewide (25 percent NOx reduction between 2002 and 2005). Although it is forecasted that generation will increase in New York in future years, emissions are not expected to increase due to the Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) which establishes NOx and SO2 emission caps. The only exception to assuming that the 2005 actual EGU emissions represent future year EGU emissions is where there is a consent agreement that limits future year emissions for a facility. In that case, the future year emissions for that specific facility have been reduced to meet the limits contained in the agreement.

4.3.2 On-Road Projection Methodology

New York State is modeled by using individual inputs for each of the 62 counties. Each county receives varying temperature, traffic, and/or air quality programs. The mobile source projection inventory was developed by using MOBILE6.2 emission factors and VMT projections for each future inventory year prepared by the NYSDOT. This projection uses linear regression of Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS) historical data for forecasting VMT. These projections employed HPMS data from 1981 to 2002.

MOBILE6.2 is then run to produce emission factors for each vehicle and road type combination for all 62 counties. The resultant emission factor in grams/mile is multiplied by daily VMT, including seasonal adjustment, to determine daily emissions.

Uncontrolled emissions for the 2009 and 2011 projected on-road mobile inventories by utilizing projection year emission factors that assume 2002 controls and account for fleet turnover from 2002 to the given projection year, multiplied by the associated projection year VMT. As a result, 2009 and 2011 uncontrolled projection year onroad mobile emissions are lower than 2002.

4.3.3 Non-Road Projection Methodology

The EPA Non-Road Model Version 2005, was used to develop future year non-road emissions projections for 2-stroke gasoline, 4-stroke gasoline, liquefied petroleum gas, compressed natural gas and diesel fueled non-road vehicles as well as emissions from recreational marine vessels. When completing future year projections, the model incorporates emissions effects that result from both anticipated changes in equipment activity as well as deterioration of equipment. The model also accounts for expected turnover of old equipment. In addition, the following EPA non-road emission control programs are built into the model:

  1. New Phase 2 Standards for Small Spark-Ignition Non-handheld Engines (March 1999) which covers NOx and hydrocarbon reductions from mowers, edgers, lawn tractors, and other non-handheld gasoline equipment.
  2. Final Phase 2 Standards for Small Spark-Ignition Handheld Engines (March 2000) which covers NOx and hydrocarbon reductions from trimmers, leaf blowers, chain saws, and other handheld gasoline equipment.
  3. Emission Standards for New Non-Road Engines (September 2002) which covers NOx, hydrocarbons and CO from the following new engines and vehicles:
    1. Large Industrial Spark-Ignition Engines (forklifts, electric generators, airport baggage, etc.)
    2. Recreational Vehicles (snowmobiles, dirt-bikes, ATVs)
    3. Recreational Diesel Marine Engines (for use in yachts and cruisers)
  4. Clean Air Non-Road Diesel Rule (May 2004) which covers NOx, PM and SOx emissions from diesel engines used in most construction, agricultural, industrial and airport equipment. In addition, this rule includes and requires a 99 percent reduction in diesel sulfur by 2010.

Future year non-road emissions projections for the aircraft, commercial marine vessel and locomotives categories were calculated using the growth factors developed for the MANE-VU Emissions Projections Technical Support Document. These projections were developed using combined growth and control factors developed from emission projections for EPA's CAIR. The control programs in place that were used to develop the growth factors were:

  1. Adopted Aircraft Engine Emissions Standards (April 1997) which reduces NOx and CO from new aircraft engines
  2. Final Emissions Standards for Locomotives (December 1997) which reduces NOx, hydrocarbons, CO and PM from new and remanufactured diesel-powered locomotive engines. This rule requires a reduction in diesel sulfur which will result in a reduction in SOx.
  3. Emission Standards for New Commercial Marine Diesel Engines (November 1999) which reduces NOx and PM from diesel marine engines over 37 kW. This rule requires a reduction in diesel sulfur which will result in a reduction in SOx.

The following two regulations were not built into the growth factors:

  1. November 2005 - New Emission Standards for New Commercial Aircraft Engines
  2. March 2007 - EPA Proposal for More Stringent Emissions Standards for Locomotives and Marine Compression-Ignition Engines
4.3.4 Biogenic Future Year Emissions

Biogenic emissions levels were maintained at the 2002 levels for all future years.

__________

1 The update to the Nassau and Suffolk CMV inventory only pertains to that portion included in the New York Harbor study completed by Starcrest. Only portions of these counties affected by the New York City Harbor Deepening Project are included. The remaining portions of Nassau and Suffolk counties are based upon the emissions inventory that was developed by EPA during preparation of the 2002 NEI.

2 This methodology is outlined in AP-42, Chapter 13, §13.2.1 for paved roads and §13.2.2 for unpaved roads.

3 Comments regarding: Revision to Paved Roads section of Chapter 13, Miscellaneous Sources, of EPA's Compilation of Air Pollutant Emission Factors, Volume I, (AP-42); letter to Bill Kuykendal, USEPA, from James Ralston, NYS DEC; September 17, 2003.

4 Comments on Proposed Rulemaking 40 CFR Part 93 "Transportation Conformity Rule Amendments for the New 8-Hour Ozone and PM,, National Ambient Air Quality Standards and Miscellaneous Revisions for Existing Areas"; letter to USEPA Docket No. OAR-2003-0049 from James Ralston, NYS DEC; December 22, 2003; logged into the docket as EPA-HQ-OAR-2003-0049-0140.

5 Pienta, W.J., "NYS PM2.5 Road Dust Estimates for CY 2002"5 ; October 28, 2004; logged into the docket as EPA-HQ-OAR-2003-0049-0371.

6 Comments by the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation on Proposed Revisions to Fine Fraction Ratios Used in AP-42 Chapter 13 for Paved Roads (§13.2.1) and Unpaved Roads (§13.2.2); transmitted by letter to J. Bosch, USEPA by J.Ralston, NYS DEC; June 16, 2006.

7 Preliminary analysis of the fine and coarse trace elemental data in the New York City CMSA; submitted as an enclosure with: Comments on Supplemental Notice of Proposed Rule "Options for PM2.5 and PM10 Hot-Spot Analyses in the Transportation Conformity Rule Amendments for the New PM2.5 and Existing PM10 National Ambient Air Quality Standards"; the "Comments ..." document appears as EPA-HQ-OAR-2003-0049-0370 in the docket and the "Preliminary Analysis ..." is logged in as EPA-HQ-OAR-2003-0049-0372 & -373 in the docket.

8 They are irreducible in the sense of being necessary to the fundamentals of vehicle dynamics (i.e. stopping and going), but may be reducible by varying the choice of materials in brakes, rotors, drums, tires, and pavement composition used by this sector, both now and in the future.

9 Kupiainen, K et. al. (2003), Science of the Total Environment, v308, pp. 175-184.; and, Kupiainen, K et. al. (2005), Environmental Science & Technology, v39, pp. 699-706.

10 Gustafsson, M. et. al. (2003), VTI rapport 521 (in Swedish).

11 Dahl, A. et. al. (2006), Atmospheric Environment, v40, pp.1314-1323.


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